Sept 3 Morning Update: Earl Approaches

5:40 AM:

Earl is currently ENE of Cape Hatteras, NC, and is a Category 2 hurricane, weaker than what was expected. Last night, Earl had an eyewall replacement cycle, and weakened faster than expected, however it is still a Category 2 hurricane, and will steadily weaken later today to a Category 1 hurricane. There is heavy rain falling in SE Virginia and eastern North Carolina, but Earl's rain ended up west of what was expected despite the track being slightly east of what was expected. Despite this, as Earl is moving northeast and is slightly east of my forecast track, the rain will also shift more NE, even though it could end up slightly west of the forecast, and as a result, NYC at this time is likely to see light to potentially locally moderate rain, with moderate to locally heavy rain and some wind for Long Island.

Another update on this could be posted later this morning. Otherwise, the next update will be posted on Saturday, discussing the coming week, including the cool down and expected significant warm up for the mid week, in more details. A Hurricane Earl summary and verification post will also be posted over the next few days.