Tuesday, July 23, 2013

***NYC Area Weather has moved***

As of July 23, 2013, NYC Area Weather moved to a new format, and this format will no longer be updated. Please refer to www.nycareaweather.com for the latest updates.

July 23, 2013 Storm Updates

1:25 AM: Strong Storms Approaching NJ, NYC

Throughout the afternoon and evening hours yesterday, widespread showers and thunderstorms developed across Pennsylvania and New Jersey, slowly expanding and spreading northward into New York along and north of a stalled frontal boundary over the area. These storms were generally non severe but produced heavy rainfall, with radar estimates showing 3/4 to 1.5 inches of rain in most of northern NJ, locally up to 2-3 inches especially in Morris county. Locations east of NYC, however, have yet to see more than a few isolated storms.

Most of the heavy rain and storm activity shifted north into NY state as expected, although a severe thunderstorm developed over southeastern PA and is slowly tracking northeast towards western-central New Jersey. The stalled frontal boundary is currently located near northern NJ into NYC on a west-east axis, and the storm is expected to weaken in severity once approaching NYC, although it will be capable of producing heavy rainfall over the next few hours especially west and southwest of NYC, with gusty winds also a risk.

The frontal boundary will gradually lift north as the wave of low pressure organizes over the region and tracks northeast, with occasional showers/storms continuing through the mid-late morning, mostly north/west of NYC, while the heaviest rain stays north of the area. Another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is expected north and west of NYC, with less than 1/2 inch to the east. Most of the current heavy rain activity should clear the region in the morning, although additional scattered storms are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening, which also may be capable of locally heavy rain. The next update will be posted later this morning.

Monday, July 22, 2013

July 22, 2013: Occasional Storms Today, Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

A weak frontal boundary slowly shifted through the region yesterday, with temperatures falling back down to near average as the hot and humid air mass from last week was pushed offshore. This frontal boundary will remain near the region through the rest of the week and weekend, with occasional rounds of showers and storms, such as today and Tuesday and possibly next weekend, continuing into at least early August.

Sunday, July 21, 2013

July 21, 2013: Rain Returns This Week

Forecast Highlights:

A cold front that slowly approached the region in the last few days is moving through today, bringing an end to the 7-day heat wave for most of the region, although some locations are still expected to reach the low 90s today. The frontal boundary will stall nearby most of the week with occasional rounds of scattered storms and thunderstorms, especially in the middle of this week and possibly next weekend, with high temperatures cooling back down into the 80s.

Saturday, July 20, 2013

July 20, 2013 Noon Update

4:25 PM: Scattered Storms Developing

A weakening cold front is slowly approaching the region, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The latest radar, posted to the left, shows scattered strong storms in southern New England and the Mid Atlantic region; although there is plenty of instability, mid level lapse rates are marginal and bulk shear is lacking, which should prevent significant severe weather across the region today. Isolated to scattered storm coverage will continue through this afternoon and evening, with some storms becoming strong with locally heavy rain and gusty winds, before ending tonight as the cold front slowly moves through, bringing a less humid but not much cooler air mass as high temperatures remain stuck in the mid 80s to low 90s.

The next update will be posted on Sunday morning with more information on this coming week's outlook.

Friday, July 19, 2013

July 19, 2013: Cooler Weather Returns Sunday

Forecast Highlights:

The heat wave that affected the region since last Sunday reached its peak today for most, with widespread highs in the mid 90s to low 100s away from the coast, where a sea breeze and isolated storms kept temperatures cooler. Along with humidity, heat index values got up to the mid 100s to even low 110s. A weak cold front will produce some storms tomorrow as it comes through, ending the heat wave, with temperatures returning into the 80s with some rain chances next week.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

July 18, 2013: 100 Degrees Today And Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

The peak of the heat wave takes place today and tomorrow, as more westerly winds and warmer temperatures aloft bring temperatures into the mid to upper 90s across the area, with low 100s possible in parts of NE NJ or NYC. Along with humid conditions, heat index values will reach the low-mid 100s, possibly even higher locally. A cold front will produce thunderstorms on Saturday evening, ending the heat wave, although the severity of the storms may not be as significant as originally forecast.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

July 17, 2013: Severe Storms To End Heat On Saturday

Forecast Highlights:

Another day of hot temperatures is expected across the region, with the 4th consecutive 90+ degree day for most of the area since the current heat wave started on Sunday. As with yesterday, humidity will not be significant yet, but will gradually increase with warming temperatures as the peak of the heat wave takes place from Wednesday through Friday. A cold front on Saturday will end the heat wave but is also expected to produce widespread strong to severe thunderstorms.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

July 16, 2013: Heat Continues Through Saturday

Forecast Highlights:

The heat wave that began on Sunday continued yesterday, with even hotter temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 90s except for the coast and interior locations and heat index values in the low 100s. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today and tomorrow, but with even hotter temperatures for the second half of the week with some locations approaching 100 degrees. The heat will end this weekend with the passage of a cold front that may produce severe weather, possibly widespread, across the region.

Monday, July 15, 2013

July 15, 2013: Highs Approach 100 Degrees

Forecast Highlights:

Hot and humid conditions continue across the region as a massive ridge continues to build overhead, with mostly to partly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 90s away from the coast persisting throughout the week as heat index values reach the upper 90s to mid 100s. A slow moving cold front will bring an end to this heat wave by next weekend, but with the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms as well.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

July 14, 2013: Heat Wave Starts Today

Forecast Highlights:

An upper level low over the region yesterday produced additional isolated showers and storms, especially in the evening hours near NYC. Since then, the ULL has drifted southwest into the central US region, with a broad, strong ridge forming on top of the region. This ridge will continue to drift west before stalling through the mid week, resulting in a week-long heat wave starting today with highs climbing well into the 90s, ending with potential severe weather by next weekend.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

July 13, 2013: Hot, Humid Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

A wave of low pressure affected the region yesterday with widespread heavy rain in the Mid Atlantic; rain totals were generally near or under 1/4 inch, although totals were locally higher, such as Islip, NY with 0.79". As the upper level low exits to the west, strong ridging will redevelop over the eastern half of the US with another relatively long stretch of hot and humid conditions throughout next week as temperatures approach the upper 90s.

Friday, July 12, 2013

July 12, 2013 Brief Update

Note: Today's update is short due to technical difficulties. The next detailed forecast discussion will be posted on early Saturday morning, July 13.

Short Term Outlook: A wave of low pressure developed earlier today along the stalled frontal boundary to the east of the area, although the coverage area and intensity of the rain significantly exceeded expectations in parts of the Mid Atlantic, where as much as 2-5 inches of rain fell with flash flooding observed. As the latest radar shows to the left, the rain continues to slowly advance NNE, with steady moderate to locally heavy rain falling west of NYC and scattered showers from NYC and further east. Based on the latest short term model guidance, the rain is expected to gradually weaken while shifting north, with at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain expected, especially west of NYC where locally higher totals are expected.

Weekend - Next Week: Temperatures will gradually warm up back into the 80s this weekend; both days are expected to be partly sunny with scattered afternoon thunderstorms especially west of NYC. As strong ridging sets up over and west of the area, heat and humidity will make a return again, with highs on Monday likely in the upper 80s to low 90s, warming up into the mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, which along with dew points in the upper 60s-low 70s may result in heat index values reaching and/or exceeding 100 degrees. Each day of the week is forecast to be mostly to partly sunny, although an isolated afternoon thunderstorm can't be ruled out especially inland. The heat is likely to weaken towards next weekend as the next cold front approaches. More information on the heat wave will be posted with Saturday morning's forecast discussion.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

July 11, 2013: Another Heat Wave Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

As noted earlier this afternoon, a drier scenario than expected set up for today as the cold front moved through faster than expected and thunderstorms failed to develop north of the Mid Atlantic. Additional isolated or scattered showers are expected on Friday into Sunday as the frontal boundary stalls nearby and slowly dissipates. By next week, however, strong ridging is expected to build into the region, resulting in another heat wave with more heat and humidity than last week, with temperatures possibly approaching the upper 90s.

July 11, 2013 Noon Update

1:10 PM: Lower Storm Risk Today

Early this morning, around 6-7 AM, a severe thunderstorm developed over SW CT, producing strong wind gusts, and spread heavy rain and thunder through the rest of southern-central CT where radar estimates show at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain fell, locally up to 1 inch. Scattered showers and thunderstorms affected the rest of the area in the meantime, with less than 1/4 inch observed.

Since then, the rain has cleared the area with dry and cloudy conditions. The outlook today was for widespread cloud cover to limit instability and thus limit any risk of severe thunderstorms, although the cold front was faster than expected, especially compared to yesterday's model guidance, and according to the latest WPC surface analysis is already near NYC, with northern NJ and SE NY having switched to a northwesterly wind. Based on the faster cold front timing and the latest high resolution short term model guidance, additional widespread thunderstorm initiation is unlikely later this afternoon, with only isolated storm coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening while the more widespread heavy storms stay south and east of the area.

As a result of the forecast change, no storm updates will be posted today. The next forecast discussion will be posted in the next few hours, with more information on the upcoming heat wave for next week, which may be even stronger than last week's heat wave.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

July 10, 2013: Storms Continue Tomorrow, Friday

Forecast Highlights:

Scattered thunderstorms were observed across parts of the area early this afternoon, producing locally heavy rain especially north of NYC and near parts of Queens and Brooklyn. A cold front will continue to advance towards the area, with showers and storms returning again for Thursday and into Friday as the front stalls nearby. The frontal system is then expected to weaken, with heat and humidity gradually making a return into next week.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

July 9, 2013: Stormy Wednesday, Thursday

Forecast Highlights:

Warm and humid conditions continued today across the region with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s for most of the area and the low 90s in NE NJ, with another round of isolated afternoon thunderstorms focusing mostly in Bronx/south Westchester, western NJ and Connecticut away from the coast. An approaching cold front will bring another round of more widespread storms on Wednesday and Thursday, which will be capable of producing heavy rain, followed by another gradual increase in warmth and humidity into next week.

Monday, July 8, 2013

July 8, 2013: Scattered Storms To Continue

Forecast Highlights:

Another day of hot and humid conditions was observed across the area, but with slightly lower temperatures and humidity as scattered clouds and storms developed in the afternoon and evening; most storms were focused north of the area, although a few isolated storms affected NYC and parts of northern NJ/SE NY. As a cold front approaches the region and temporarily stalls, more scattered storms, possibly strong, are expected for Wednesday through Friday as temperatures and humidity continue to gradually decrease.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

July 7, 2013: Temps Cool, But Storms Continue

Forecast Highlights:

The Bermuda high pressure remained in place over the region today leading to another very hot and humid day, although the high shifted further southeast with isolated storms reaching the western half of the area. As the high continues to retreat offshore, additional scattered storms are expected on Monday, with another front expected to stall nearby for the late week resulting in another round of rain and storms.

Saturday, July 6, 2013

July 6, 2013: Heat Wave To End Monday

*** Daily forecast updates will be resumed starting today. ***

Forecast Highlights:

The heat and humidity observed starting from July 4th continued today as a strong ridge persists over the western Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will stay in place on Sunday with similarly hot and humid conditions before flattening out on Monday as a frontal system approaches, with temperatures slightly cooling down but with humid conditions expected to continue as well as a risk of scattered storms through the rest of the week.

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