Sept 26: Tropical Cyclone Could Move Up East Coast

Storm Outlook For Monday And Tuesday:

Tomorrow will be a cloudy day with rain moving into the area. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s inland and in the upper 60s for NYC, with mid-upper 60s in Long Island/S CT due to the cloud cover and rain in place, which is slightly cooler than the model consensus for tomorrow's highs.

Light to moderate rain will begin to enter the area tomorrow afternoon, and will become moderate to locally heavy during the overnight hours. By Tuesday, a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms will likely move through, and with a south wind and highs in the 70s, as well as some CAPE/LI and strong shear, some storms could be strong or severe, with heavy rain and strong wind gusts the main threat.

By the time that the storm ends on Tuesday night, 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected for the area, with as much as 3 inches in isolated spots, mainly in the western parts of the area.

Wednesday And Thursday: Mild, But Mainly Cloudy

During Wednesday, the cold front will likely stall to our east, providing mainly cloudy skies, an isolated shower or two, and mild temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Thursday Night - Friday: Tropical Cyclone?

From what I mentioned two days ago, the models are now consistent in developing a low pressure in the Caribbean into a tropical cyclone, which would be named Nicole. Looking at the possible scenarios (posted in the map to the left), Nicole would form on Tuesday, move towards Florida by Wednesday, then either move up the East Coast or get pushed out to sea. If it affects the area, it would be on Friday.

There is question on if and when it develops, as it is currently relatively disorganized, and even though development isn't expected for another 48 hours, as we've seen with Matthew, it could take longer for it to organize. And if it takes too long to do so, it would easily be pushed out to sea by the trough. But if it follows the current model scenario, track #2, the cold front would likely be slower in moving into the Northeast, allowing potential Nicole to hug the East Coast before being pushed out to sea. For now, I used a mixture of Tracks #2 and 3 for my 5-Day Forecast, but this is relatively low confidence and is subject to change.

Stay tuned for more details on this potential tropical cyclone, and if it forms, how it may affect the area.

Longer Range: Tomorrow's update will also focus more on the longer range, including Saturday-Monday, when we could see a significant cool spell with widespread frost potentially affecting the area.