Sept 13: More Rain Thurs, Another Warm Spell?

Note: tonight's blog update will be brief, but the 5-Day Forecast was updated.

---------------------------------------------

Today brought an unexpected round of strong to severe thunderstorms to the area, with some hail and wind damage across parts of the area, as well as heavy rainfall amounts. In some places, this was the first measurable rain in as much as 19 days, despite only bringing up to 1/4-1/2" at most for a lot of places, and there isn't much relief as there is no widespread heavy rain in sight yet.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy, with a NW wind expected. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s inland, mid to upper 70s for the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 70s for Long Island/S CT.

Thursday And Friday's Storm:

Wednesday will bring temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area, warmer than previously expected, but low temperatures are still likely to follow the previous forecast (more on that in previous posts and the 5-day forecast). Thursday will bring cooler highs, in the mid 60s to lower 70s due to increased cloud cover. Light rain is expected for Thursday night with steady or rising temperatures, but rain amounts will stay below 1/2 inch. Friday will be drier and warmer, with highs back into the 70s.

Longer Range: Warm Spell?

This is the most uncertain part of the forecast. The models are showing a very tight frontal boundary setting up for early next week, but where it sets up is the question. Some models show highs only in the 60s with rain, but others bring highs in the 80s and even 90s. Stay tuned for more details on this over the next few days.


Brief Tropics Update: Hurricane Igor, currently a strong Category 4 hurricane, has rapidly intensified yesterday, and became a Category 4 hurricane much earlier than expected. Despite this, Igor is slightly weakening, and is unlikely to peak as a Category 5 hurricane at this time. I will post more on Igor tomorrow, with a map, but for now, I expect its forecast track to keep shifting south over the next few days as it keeps heading more west than NW, but for the longer range, I think it will stay closer to Bermuda than the United States.

Further east, Tropical Storm Julia is slowly intensifying, but will not become as strong as Igor, and is expected to stay away from land for now.