Sept 17: Two Tornadoes Confirmed In NYC Yesterday

Blog Notes:

- The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight.
- The poll for the hottest temperature between Wednesday-Friday remains open for the next few days. Vote your thoughts on the poll if you have not done so yet.
- With two tornadoes now having been confirmed, a storm summary will be posted on yesterday's event over the next few days.

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After yesterday's storms, where a tornado has been confirmed in central New Jersey with a high wind report in Queens, today was a much nicer day for the area. After the National Weather Service examined the damage, not one, but two tornadoes were confirmed in NYC, the first an EF0 in Brooklyn near Park Slope, and the second an EF1 tornado in Queens near Flushing and Bayside. There was also a microburst observed near Forest Hills, Queens. A storm summary will be posted on this over the next few days, with more details on what happened.

The next few days will be dry and comfortable, with slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday and colder temperatures on Monday, but the warm conditions may return again by mid-late next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a partly sunny day, with clearing skies likely and a SSE wind expected. High temperatures will rise into the mid 70s inland and in the immediate NYC area, with lower 70s for Long Island and S CT.

Sunday - Tuesday: Warm, Then Cooling Down

On Sunday, as the cold front approaches the area, temperatures are expected to warm up, and will likely reach the lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, with mid to upper 70s for the interior and Long Island/S CT. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, however there is a low chance of this happening, and partly sunny skies are expected.

A colder air mass will move into the area by Monday, however yesterday's models were likely overestimating the intensity of this cold air mass, and have since trended warmer. High temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected for the area on Monday, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s inland, mid 40s to lower 50s for the N/W suburbs of NYC and southern CT, upper 40s to lower 50s for Long Island, and lower to mid 50s for NYC. Tuesday will be slightly warmer as a warm from approaches from the SW.

Wednesday-Friday: Return Of Warmth

As I have mentioned with my updates over the last few days, a significant warm up is possible by mid-late next week. A storm on Wednesday will track to our north and west, however this will also draw in a much warmer air mass. 850 mb temperatures are expected to pass 15c and may approach 20c, leading to high temperatures potentially rising into the lower to mid 80s, and upper 80s may be possible in the warmer case scenario, although no model shows this at this time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for Wednesday night as the cold front moves nearby, but widespread moderate to heavy rain is unlikely.

The cold front is expected to approach the area by Thursday, however there is uncertainty on how far south the warm air mass retreats. It is possible that it stays far north enough to bring another day of low 80s for the area, or it moves south to give highs potentially near the mid-upper 70s. By Friday, however, another storm, potentially stronger, will likely organize well to our northwest, and should draw in a potentially warmer air mass. If some models verify, this will bring upper 80s for the area, with lower 90s even possible, however this is still uncertain. More details on this potential will come over the next few days.

By the weekend, a cooler air mass should move in, bringing temperatures back to the near-below average range.


Tropics: Mexico Hit By Karl, Bermuda Next In Line


Hurricane Karl made landfall earlier today in southern Mexico, as a Category 3 hurricane. Karl peaked as a strong Category 3 hurricane before making landfall, and could've reached Category 4 intensity, however interaction with Mexico slightly weakened Karl before landfall. Karl set the record for the southernmost major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, being very close to the Mexican coast, while most hurricanes in that region are much further north.

Hurricane Julia, meanwhile, has weakened and is barely a hurricane, and due to an unfavorable environment, is expected to continue weakening. Julia may become a tropical depression over the next few days, and Julia or its remnants will likely be absorbed by Igor once it is almost an extra-tropical storm.


Hurricane Igor:

Hurricane Igor has weakened more than expected, and is now down to a Category 2 hurricane. Despite this, Igor has grown in size even more, and is now even larger than other massive hurricanes, such as Ike of 2008 and Katrina of 2005. Igor is expected to maintain its intensity for the next few days, but may weaken to a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday or Monday.

Igor's eye is expected to pass very close to, if not over Bermuda. This would bring hurricane conditions to the island, with tropical storm conditions lasting for a longer period of time, mainly due to Igor's massive size. Igor will be weaker than Fabian of 2003 was when passing near Bermuda, but it will still be capable of producing potentially significant damage there. Igor will then turn northeast and stay out to sea while speeding up and turning extra-tropical.