Sept 20: Warmth To Last Until Saturday

Note:

- I have created a new page for the website, being the "Weather Alerts" page, replacing the "Severe Weather/Tropics" page. In there, I will create weather alerts, however they are not created by the National Weather Service, and should not be used instead of the NWS, but rather to see my thoughts on the potential for hazardous weather. Comments and suggestions on the page are appreciated, and will be taken into consideration when I decide whether to keep it or not.

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Today was a rather chilly day across the area, with highs back into the upper 60s to mid 70s, however temperatures are already dropping with what will be the coolest night yet this fall. I have issued a Frost Alert for the interior areas (more on that in the Weather Alerts page), where low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s and could be as low as the mid 30s. The N/W suburbs of NYC and southern Connecticut will see lows in the lower to upper 40s, Long Island in the mid to upper 40s, and NYC in the lower to potentially mid 50s.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be another sunny and chilly day, with a south wind expected. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s across most of the area, except for S CT/Long Island, which will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Wednesday - Saturday: Very Warm

As I mentioned in yesterday's discussion, Wednesday is expected to be a very warm day, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 80s to lower 90s in the immediate NYC area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and lower to upper 60s for the rest of the area.

By Thursday, the cold front will stall close to the area, however high temperatures will still be rather warm for this time of the year. Due to the models trending warmer and changing the wind direction more towards the south/west than north/east due to trending north, I raised my forecast high temperatures, now expecting highs in the mid to potentially upper 80s for NYC and lower to mid 80s inland. Long Island/S CT will be cooler due to an onshore wind. Note that this is still subject to slight changes.

Friday will bring the return of warm conditions, with highs similar to, if not slightly warmer than those of Wednesday, however Friday night will be mild as the cold front approaches, with lows in the lower to mid 60s inland and the upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, but Saturday's highs are still subject to change.

Sunday-Monday: Storm, Or Cool Down?

By Sunday, uncertainty returns to the forecast. As I mentioned yesterday, a storm could form, however today's models backed away from this, and instead show a significant cool down with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s to lower 40s. I will post more on this tomorrow, once uncertainty could clear a little more.


Brief Tropics Update: A new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic, and will likely be named Lisa over the next few days. Lisa is not a threat to land at this time. Igor is currently turning extra-tropical, and will likely have its last advisory issued very soon.