Monday, February 28, 2011

Feb 28, 2011: Dry Week Coming Up

After today's morning thunderstorms which produced moderate rainfall amounts for the area, an area of light to moderate precipitation is currently moving from west to east across the area. While for the immdiate NYC area and Long Island, this should stay as plain rain, for the interior parts of the area precipitation may mix with light snow before ending.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the 20s away from the NYC area, with high temperatures tomorrow returning into the 40s. After briefly warmer temperatures on Wednesday, Thursday will bring a brief return to winter-like temperatures, with morning temperatures in the 10s away from New York City and high temperatures struggling to reach the 30-35 degree mark across parts of the area. Temperatures will warm up again by the weekend, however with this warm up, another storm will affect the region.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mainly sunny day across the area with a light north wind expected as a high pressure will be near the area. Temperatures will be colder than today, peaking in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most of the area with lower to mid 40s in the immediate NYC area. A few upper 40s are possible south and west of NYC.


Wednesday - Friday: Variable Temperatures

The three day period from Wednesday through Friday will bring dry conditions to the area, but with rapidly changing conditions, going from March-like temperatures to January-like temperatures in just one day. Wednesday will be a mild day across the area, with high temperatures expected to peak in the mid 40s for the eastern parts of the area, mid to upper 40s inland, and in the upper 40s to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area along with a southwest wind.

A weak low pressure in Canada, meanwhile, will bring a strong cold air mass into the region, and while it won't be extremely cold, it will bring temperatures well below the average for this time of the year. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will drop into the lower to mid 10s for interior areas and into the mid to upper 10s for the rest of the area except for New York City and Long Island. With a strong high pressure just to the north of the area, Thursday will bring sunny skies with unusually chilly temperatures, peaking in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and in the lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area.

On Thursday night, despite cold overnight temperatures returning, with mid 10s to lower 20s away from New York City, cloud cover will begin to increase, with Friday's high temperatures similar to tomorrow's temperatures, in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area.


Friday - Monday: Mostly Cloudy, Becoming Wet

By Friday, mostly cloudy skies will return to the area with a few showers possible overnight, but the main storm won't reach the area until Sunday. There is a lot of uncertainty with the set up of the storm and the smaller details, but there is the potential for moderate to potentially heavy rain to affect the area on Sunday and Monday with high temperatures returning into the 50s. Stay tuned for more information on this time frame once details become clearer.

Feb 28 Afternoon Update

8:25 PM: With the cold front having moved through at least most of, if not all of the area, an area of light to moderate rain is currently in eastern PA and is moving east. While most of it will stay to the south of the area, expect some occasional light to potentially moderate rain to affect at least most of the area over the next 1 to 3 hours.

Temperatures are currently steadily dropping across the area, already in the upper 30s in the interior parts of the area with lower to upper 40s in the immediate NYC area. Temperatures will continue to drop as this area of rain moves east, and it is possible that a few snow showers fall in the interior parts of the area as the storm ends.


4:45 PM: This morning, we saw a widespread area of heavy rain moving through the Northeast staying mostly north of the area, with the southern end of the first round including rain and locally heavy thunderstorms affecting the area. The second round of the storm is currently affecting the Mid Atlantic with heavy rain and strong to locally severe thunderstorms, but this round is staying mostly to the south of the area, only producing some light rain showers.

Last night, I lowered my rain forecast as it appeared that the area would be in between the two rounds. The rainfall amounts across the area so far mostly fell into this range, with totals ranging from as low as 1/4 inch in the southeastern parts of the area to as much as a widespread 3/4 inch in the northern parts of the area. The heaviest rain totals ended up near coastal southern Connecticut, where rain totals locally reached up to 1 inch. With only a few reports of 1 inch of rain, and the storm having ended for the area, I have cancelled the Rain Watch that was previously in effect.

Temperatures are currently ranging from the mid 40s in interior southern Connecticut to the lower 60s southwest of New York City. Temperatures may slightly rise in parts of the area for the short term, however for the main part the current temperatures should be near the high temperature of the day, with dropping temperatures later in the evening. Low temperatures will be cold tonight, dropping into the 20s north and west of NYC.


The next update will be posted tonight, discussing the brief return to more winter-like temperatures on Thursday with high temperatures struggling to break the 30-35 degree mark in most of the area, followed by another storm that might bring a heavy rain threat between Sunday and Monday.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Feb 27, 2011: Heavy Rain And Storms Tomorrow

After a weak storm this morning brought snow for the area north of New York City, with light accumulations in southern Connecticut and SE New York, temperatures quickly warmed up this afternoon, reaching the mid to upper 40s in the western parts of the area, upper 40s to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area, and lower to upper 40s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Cloud cover is increasing again tonight as a storm is moving into the region, producing two rounds of rain, one in the morning with rain and some thunder, then a second round with rain and thunderstorms, producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, which may result in up to 1-2 inches of rain. There has been a trend, however, to put the area in a dry spot, keeping the heaviest rain and strongest storms both south and north of the area with only 1/2 inch of rain for NYC, being why a Rain Watch is in effect for the area due to moderate confidence of over 1 inch of rain. Drier conditions will return by Tuesday and last through the week with variable temperatures, though the dry conditions won't last much longer as yet another storm will affect the region next weekend, also bringing the potential for heavy rainfall.


Tonight Into Tomorrow: Heavy Rain, Strong Thunderstorms

Yesterday, I mentioned how there was uncertainty with the models as the NAM and GFS brought the storm in two separate waves, which was a possibility that needed to be watched. The models trended back to their original idea, with rain in the morning, a break in the afternoon, then rain and thunderstorms in the evening. Below, I will discuss the storm's impact on the area and the region, including the severe weather potential.


Tonight: A severe weather outbreak is currently taking place in Missouri and is moving towards Illinois, associated with a low pressure near Oklahoma that will move towards the region by tomorrow, reaching northwestern Pennsylvania by tomorrow morning. Precipitation will move in from west to east tonight, and while some freezing rain will start north of the area, the area should start out with plain rain.

Tomorrow: The first part of the storm will move through in the morning and will clear most of the area by noon. This part of the storm, however, appears to stay mostly to the north of the area with the heaviest rain towards the Northeast, though some rain and thunderstorms are expected in the morning.

By the afternoon, there may be some breaks in the clouds with mostly cloudy skies, and as the area will be in the warm sector of the storm, temperatures will be able to rise into the 50s for most of the area, and 60s from NYC and further south/southwest.

The second part of the storm will then move towards the area by the evening, and will bring the main risk of severe thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic. It appears that the highest severe weather risk will focus from West Virginia to the Washington DC area and towards southern New Jersey, where the storms may produce gusty winds and heavy rain, locally up to 2-3 inches, resulting in a 30% risk of severe weather. While there is some uncertainty with the northern end of this strong squall line, the heaviest storms appear to stay to the south of New York City from this round.

If the area gets hit by at least one of the rounds tomorrow, especially the second one, rain totals could easily range from 1 to 2 inches across most of the area, but if the storm does end up missing the area, rain totals could range from 1/4 inch to 3/4 inch, being why I have a moderate confidence Rain Watch in effect for the area. Stay tuned for storm updates that will be posted tomorrow afternoon.


Longer Range: Tomorrow night's update will discuss the longer range in more details, along with a brief return to colder weather for Thursday and another potential heavy rain event for Sunday, March 6.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Feb 26, 2011: Uncertainty With Monday's Storm

Today started out with mostly to partly sunny skies across the area, however cloud cover has increased as the next storm is moving into the Northeast. This storm will stay mostly to the north of the area, bringing a few rain/snow showers especially north and east of New York City, with temperatures tomorrow warming up well into the 40s. The return to dry conditions will be brief as another storm affects the region on Monday, but how it affects the region is still uncertain.


Monday's Storm: Uncertainty Increases

This winter, we have seen many cases where even the day before a storm hit, there was not a high confidence on what the storm would exactly do as the models trended to a different direction in the short range. This storm is no exception, as the latest models are trending in a different direction with this storm.

Yesterday, the models showed this as a single, strong low pressure moving northeast through the western Northeast into Canada, bringing a warm front through in the early afternoon with high temperatures reaching well into the 50s in NYC, followed by a cold front with heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in the early overnight hours. While some models continue to support this solution, especially the GGEM and the UKMET, and for now it remains a possibility, the NAM and GFS models have trended towards a different solution, where we see a weaker storm coming in two waves.

In the two wave scenario, there is a relatively high confidence with the first wave, which would track through the western Northeast in the afternoon hours, bringing moderate to potentially locally heavy rain across the area between the early morning and early to mid afternoon hours with temperatures steadily rising. There is uncertainty with when high temperatures peak and how warm they get, which could range from high temperatures peaking in the mid afternoon to the early overnight hours, with the high temperature range in NYC from the lower 50s to the upper 50s. There is still expected to be a break in the precipitation sometime around the late afternoon hours.

The second wave would come in the overnight hours and would be south of the first wave, ranging from the GFS focusing the heaviest rain in Virginia to the NAM focusing the heaviest rain just south of NYC. In this scenario, there would likely not be a strong thunderstorm risk, though there would be a heavy rain potential. This is the more uncertain part of the two wave scenario.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with which scenario verifies, though especially with the NAM and GFS having first correctly trended southeast for yesterday's storm, with the other models catching on afterwards, this two wave scenario needs to be watched. Regardless of which scenario verifies, heavy rain is possible for the area again which may lead to additional flooding. Stay tuned for more information on this storm tomorrow.


Longer Range:

Behind this storm, Tuesday will bring a return to more seasonable temperatures and drier conditions, with Wednesday warming up into the upper 40s to potentially the mid 50s across the area ahead of a weak storm in Canada that will bring down much colder air into the region. While the coldest conditions will stay north of the area, high temperatures will cool down into the mid 30s to lower 40s, with low temperatures in the 20s and potentially 10s inland. The next storm will then affect the area around March 5-7.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Feb 25, 2011: More Rain, Wind On Monday

Feb 26 Morning: So far this winter, most of the storms ended up changing with last minute trends in the short range on the models, and Monday's storm seems to be no exception, as the latest 12z NAM run takes the low pressure directly over the area instead of the western Northeast, and the GFS brings this storm in two waves, one of them mainly to the north of the area and the other one to the south of the area. With the current uncertainty, the next update will be posted tonight after I review this afternoon's model runs to determine what changes, if any, should be made to the forecast.

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Today, the area saw a widespread heavy rain event as a low pressure tracked over the immediate NYC area. In addition, windy conditions were observed in Long Island and parts of the immediate NYC area and southern Connecticut, with winds gusting up to nearly 60 mph in parts of Long Island, and in the early afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms moved through parts of the immediate NYC area extending further southwest into Delaware. With the storm out of the region, windy conditions will begin to end, with light winds expected by tomorrow morning.

Much colder temperatures are expected tomorrow in places that were in the warm sector of the storm today, including Long Island, parts of southern Connecticut and New York City, with a weak storm bringing light rain/snow from NYC and further north on Sunday morning, however the set up will quickly change overnight, with heavy rain and thunderstorms expected for Monday evening/night as temperatures approach the 60 degree mark in parts of the area.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring drier conditions to the area, with partly sunny skies in the morning and increasing clouds in the afternoon as the next storm approaches. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s for most of the area, with upper 30s to lower 40s in the immediate NYC area. A northwest turning southwest wind is expected.


Sunday: Light Snow Expected

On Saturday night, cloud cover will increase ahead of a weak disturbance moving from west to east towards the Northeast. The NAM model earlier today continued to suggest that this would be far south enough to bring several inches of snow to the area, though the rest of the models are further north, and the NAM also adjusted north with its latest run once again, bringing 2 to 4 inches of snow from central New York into southwestern Maine.

Despite most of the precipitation staying to the north of the area, as there will be enough cold, light snow is expected to fall from New York City and further north during Sunday morning, which may accumulate up to 2 inches well north of NYC. The snow will mix with and change over to rain in the southern and eastern parts of the area, including Long Island and New York City, though the northwestern parts of the area may stay with plain snow until the storm ends in the late morning. Behind the storm, some clearing in the cloud cover is expected with high temperatures rising into the lower to upper 40s across the area.


Monday: Storm To Bring Rain, Thunderstorms, Wind

Between Sunday and Monday, the set up will go from one extreme to another, with Sunday bringing light snow to the Northeast and Monday bringing heavy rain, warm temperatures and thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty with the storm's smaller details, though the overall picture is generally clear.

A storm is expected to develop in the Rockies on Sunday, moving towards the Ohio Valley on Monday. The exact timing is still uncertain, though from there, the storm is expected to move through the western Northeast overnight. The latest NAM run took the low pressure right over the area, though this is still the NAM's longer range where its accuracy is not as good as its shorter range, and it is subject to changes. The storm will start in the overnight hours on Sunday, and with 850 mb temperatures above freezing and surface temperatures in the lower to mid 30s inland, the storm might start out with some light freezing rain in the interior parts of the area, though any freezing rain will not last long and will change over to rain by the time that the steadier precipitation moves in.

As the warm front moves through, a steady moderate to potentially heavy rain will affect the area from the early morning to the early or late afternoon hours. Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the day, and will peak sometime around the early overnight hours in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area with mid to upper 50s for the immediate NYC area. The exact time when temperatures will peak depends on the storm's timing, ranging from the evening hours to the middle of the overnight hours. After the first round of rain ends, most models indicate a break in the rain, which may range from the mid afternoon hours to the early overnight hours. The cold front will then move through sometime during the overnight hours, bringing the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms, which may produce gusty winds.

There is still uncertainty with parts of the storm, especially with the timing and the exact track, though the potential is there for heavy rain out of this storm with totals near or over 1 inch, which may lead to additional flooding in parts of the area, and there is also the potential for more rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds with the cold front in the overnight hours. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.


Longer Range: Behind this storm, temperatures will return to more seasonable levels with a stretch of dry conditions expected. These dry conditions will last until about March 5-7, when the next storm is expected. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

February 21, 2011 Polls

NYC Area Weather had two polls open before the February 21 storm, one about the storm scenario and the other about accumulations in New York City. Below are the results for each poll:


What will NYC see on 2/21-22? (21 votes)

0 votes - No storm, dry conditions
1 vote - Snow south of NYC
1 vote - Storm clips NYC with light snow
3 votes - Moderate snowstorm
11 votes - Major snowstorm
3 votes - Rain/snow mix
2 votes - Mostly/plain rain

How much snow will NYC see tonight? (12 votes)

0 votes - Less than 1 inch
1 vote - 1 to 2 inches
2 votes - 2 to 3 inches
0 votes - 3 to 5 inches
9 votes - 5+ inches

(As New York City generally saw between 2 and 5 inches of snow, both "2-3" and "3-5" answers are correct).

Stay tuned for an update later tonight discussing another strong storm for Monday expected to produce heavy rain, thunderstorms and wind.

Feb 25, 2011 Storm Updates

1:05 PM: The low pressure is currently directly over northern New Jersey. As last night's discussion mentioned, some models suggested that a thunderstorm line would form in the afternoon as the cold front is moving through. With the storm moving faster than expected, this is taking place now instead of the late afternoon, with a line of strong thunderstorms from central New Jersey moving southwest towards Maryland and Delaware, moving east. These thunderstorms are capable of producing strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall from northeastern New Jersey and further south/east into Long Island and NYC, with moderate to heavy rain expected further north/northeast.

Windy conditions are expected to continue in Long Island, frequently gusting near or above 50 mph, though later today, the winds will calm down a little in Long Island while spreading across the rest of the area before calming down during the overnight hours.

I may post another update later this afternoon, otherwise the next update will be posted later tonight, focusing on a light snow event for Sunday morning north of NYC with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible, followed by a strong storm well to the northwest of the area on Monday that will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms, especially in the evening and early overnight hours.


11:15 AM: Last night, I mentioned how the warmer scenario was the more likely one, but that the models were beginning to suggest a colder scenario. This morning, some models, especially the NAM, are still trying to take this low pressure south, with a track over New York City. Looking at the latest observations, it is a little difficult to tell exactly where the low pressure will end up, however it appears to be moving east northeast, which would take it over northern New Jersey and into Connecticut.

There is currently a sharp temperature gradient moving from northeastern New Jersey into Connecticut. Temperatures north and west of this line are in the lower 30s to lower 40s, and temperatures southeast of this line are in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Heavy rain fell across most of the area earlier this morning, though freezing rain potentially fell in the interior parts of the area where temperatures were in the lower 30s, and most of the heavy rain has moved out of the area by now, though heavy rain continues to affect Long Island and eastern Connecticut.

The interior parts of the area may fail to reach the 40 degree mark this afternoon, though the sharp temperature gradient will likely continue in the immediate NYC area, where high temperatures will peak anywhere from the lower to upper 40s north and west of NYC and into southern Connecticut, with upper 40s to mid 50s for NYC and Long Island. There may be some additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, especially from NYC and further south, as the cold front moves through, and the interior parts of the area could even see some snow showers as the storm ends in the evening. Gusty winds are still expected during the day especially south and east of NYC, which may gust up to 50-60 mph, with windy conditions spreading across the entire area early tonight before calming down by tomorrow morning.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Feb 24, 2011: Uncertainty With Tomorrow's Storm

As a strong storm is developing near Arkansas and is moving towards the region, cloudy skies have covered the area with some isolated showers, mixing with snow/sleet well north of NYC. Through today, there was generally good agreement with the models, which I used for my forecast discussion, however right now there are last minute changes going on with the models that if verify, will lead to a major bust with the forecast, preventing temperatures from rising above 40 degrees north/west of NYC with a cold rain during the entire day, instead of 45-55 degrees and thunderstorms. Below, I will discuss both scenarios in detail, as well as a light rain/snow event for Sunday and another rain/thunderstorm event for Monday.


Tonight - Tomorrow: Rain And Wind Expected

As previously mentioned, there are now two possible scenarios for tomorrow's storm. As I already worked on today's forecast and discussion earlier this afternoon focusing on the first scenario, this will be the one this discussion will focus on, however I will also mention what will happen should the colder scenario verify.

Warmer Case Scenario:

Rain is expected to begin falling tonight, and while generally light rain is expected until at least 2 AM, afterwards a more steady moderate to heavy rain will develop across the area. The heaviest rain will fall between the early to late morning hours, with windy conditions beginning to develop, especially in the southeastern parts of the area. Thunder is also possible with the rain as a line of heavy rain moves through before the main part of the storm ends around 2 PM.

During the day, the storm will track across Pennsylvania from SW to NE and end up near southeastern Maine. As the warm front moves through most of the area, temperatures surge well into the 40s except for the northwesternmost parts of the area, which should stay in the lower to mid 40s, with a strong south wind expected for Long Island and parts of the immediate NYC area and southern Connecticut, with gusts up to 50 mph possible, locally higher.

As the cold front approaches, a weak squall line of showers and thunderstorms may develop in the late afternoon to early evening and move through the area, producing gusty winds, which will be followed by the cold front and windy conditions spreading across the rest of the area, gusting up to 40 mph. The winds will begin to calm down after midnight.

By the time that the storm ends, at least 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected across the area, with the highest amounts generally from NYC and further north. This will lead to flooding especially in places that still have a deep snow pack. Windy conditions may also lead to damage, especially in the central and eastern parts of the area.

Colder Case Scenario:

The latest models have been coming in colder and further south, which if correct, would lead to major changes in the forecast. While it will not be anywhere near enough to make this a major snowstorm for any part of the area, it will prevent temperatures from surging well into the 40s and lower 50s for most of the area except for Long Island. In this scenario, the low pressure will take a track near New York City instead of northeastern Pennsylvania, meaning that the warm front does not move through most of the area. This will keep high temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, with high temperatures in the 40s for Long Island, NYC and southwest/south of there.

The precipitation outlook in this scenario would not be much different, with the main difference being shifting the heavy rain axis further south, so that the heaviest rain falls near the immediate NYC area, not north of the area. There will still be the heavy rain line in the late morning and the late afternoon squall line potential, especially from NYC and further south, and light snow will mix in the interior parts of the area and even potentially towards the north/west suburbs of NYC as the storm ends.

This scenario is closely being monitored right now in case this does become the actual outcome. At this time, the first scenario is the more likely one, however I will post an update tomorrow morning about which scenario will be the one to verify.


Saturday Night - Sunday: Light Rain/Snow

As a weak disturbance moves through the Northeast, it will produce widespread light precipitation. The NAM model earlier today suggested that this will track south enough to produce light accumulations for most of the area, however all of the other models are north of the NAM, and it also adjusted north with its latest run, bringing only light rain to the immediate NYC area and a light mix further north. Most of the precipitation from this weak storm will stay to the north of the area, though a light mix is expected north of NYC, with light rain for NYC potentially starting out with some light snow showers.


Monday: Another Major Storm Expected

Another major storm is expected for Monday as an intense storm moves into the Great Lakes. While it appears that surface temperatures may be cold enough initially for freezing rain in the interior parts of the area, temperatures quickly warm up into the 50s by the afternoon, with the cold front moving through, bringing rain and thunderstorms in the evening followed by colder temperatures. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Feb 23, 2011: Stormy Week Ahead

After a very cold morning across the area, with temperatures unexpectedly dropping well below the expected temperatures inland, even reaching the negative single digits in parts of Sussex and Orange counties, temperatures quickly warmed into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area, melting the snowfall from Monday's storm.

A stormy week is coming up ahead with three storm threats, the first one being a storm on Friday expected to bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to the area. The end of the weekend into Monday, however, could be even more active, with a quick change in the set up going from potential snow on Sunday morning to potential thunderstorms on Monday.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring increasing clouds to the area ahead of the next storm with the potential for a few showers in the late afternoon. High temperatures will be warmer than today, peaking in the lower 40s for most of the area with lower to mid 40s in the immediate NYC area. A south wind is expected.


Thursday Night - Friday Night: Heavy Rain, Wind, Flooding Expected

Through yesterday, there was a lot of uncertainty with the track that the storm would take, ranging from the GFS with a track just off the coast, bringing a snowstorm to the interior parts of the area, to the ECMWF/UKMET with the storm tracking through Ohio and the western Northeast. I considered the GFS as an outlier, and for my update yesterday I sided with a track not too far east of the one in the graphic to the left.

Today's models came to a better agreement, showing the storm well west of the area, resulting in the first major rainstorm since early December affecting the area on Friday, brining heavy rain, flooding and winds, with a major snowstorm for the central and northern Northeast.


Thursday Night: The storm will start to affect the area tomorrow evening, starting out with rain for most of the area and temperatures steady in the lower to mid 30s. With temperatures cold enough, the storm may start out with sleet or freezing rain in the northwestern parts of the area, however any frozen precipitation should be brief and will change over to rain as temperatures begin to rise by the morning hours. Light rain is expected early on, with moderate to heavy rain developing by 2 AM. Overall rain totals during the overnight hours are expected to be between 1/4 and 1/2 inch.

Friday: The heaviest rain from this storm will fall on Friday in the late morning. During this time, a widespread heavy rain is expected to cover the entire area, with increasing winds, especially for the eastern parts of the area. The heavy rain should end by the early afternoon, with more occasional showers, however as the warm front moves through most of the area, temperatures surge into the lower to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area and upper 40s in Long Island/southern Connecticut. There is some uncertainty on whether the warm front also moves through the western parts of the area, putting a range for the high temperatures from the lower 40s to the lower 50s. During this time, breezy conditions are expected for the immediate NYC area with windy conditions for Long Island, between 20 and 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

During the evening hours, as the cold front comes through, there may be some more light rain, and while unlikely at this time, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for the central and eastern parts of the area. Behind the cold front, breezy conditions will develop for the entire area, with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

By the time that the storm ends, at least 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected across the area, which may result in flooding, especially in places that have a deep snow pack. I issued a Rain Warning for the entire area for this storm, and may also issue a Wind Alert tomorrow. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.


Saturday - Monday: From One Extreme To Another

On Saturday, mostly sunny skies and drier conditions are expected, with high temperatures cooling down into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. On Saturday night, there is uncertainty with a potential light precipitation event, as some models show this as a moderate event while other models fail to produce anything more than scattered rain/snow showers. If this event does take place, it would likely start out as light snow for the interior parts of the area with a light mix further south, changing to rain by Sunday afternoon. Stay tuned for more information on this potential light event.

Between Sunday and Monday, however, the overall set up will go from one extreme to another. A potentially intense storm is expected to develop in the central US and move towards the Great Lakes by Monday, which will push out the cold air mass and replace it with a much warmer air mass. While there is uncertainty with the smaller details which can be expected this far out, there is the potential for heavy rain from this storm, windy conditions, and depending on the exact set up, even thunderstorms may be possible out of this storm. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Feb 22, 2011: Heavy Rain Potential For Friday

Note: Due to technical difficulties, the 5-Day Forecast was only updated for the immediate NYC area. In addition, expect a Rain Watch to be issued for the area for Friday sometime tomorrow.

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After the snowstorm that dumped anywhere from 2 to 8 inches of snow across the area yesterday morning, temperatures were very cold this morning, in the 10s for most of the area and single digits inland. Tonight will again bring temperatures similar to those of this morning, but warmer weather will return for tomorrow with high temperatures between the mid 30s and lower 40s. This warm up will continue, and eventually by Friday, a storm will move into the region, bringing the potential for heavy rain as well as flooding in places where there is still a deep snow pack.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

After the cold temperatures tonight, tomorrow will also bring sunny skies along with a light northwest wind expected. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s for most of the area with lower 40s in the immediate NYC area.


Thursday - Friday: Heavy Rain Potential

On Thursday, increasing clouds are expected for the area as the next storm approaches from the west. This storm, however, will be wet rather than white, with the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of the area.

There is a wide range of solutions with the models, ranging from a significant snowstorm for the area with the 12z GFS to a storm tracking through Ohio on the UKMET. The set up with this storm, however, is very unfavorable for a snowstorm for most of the area, with the main issues being a lack of cold, no high pressure to the north of the storm and nothing to prevent it from tracking inland. The lack of cold air issue can also be seen with the GFS, where surface temperatures are warmer than 850 mb temperatures.

While the ECMWF and UKMET models may be too far west and too strong, the GFS is probably too far east, and at this time I am going with a track near the Interstate 95 corridor or west of there, producing 1 to 1.5 inches of rain for the area with the heaviest on Friday morning followed by the potential for the storm to end with a little back end snow for the western parts of the area. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.


Longer Range: Tomorrow's update will discuss the longer range in more details, including a weak storm around February 27 and another storm for March 1-2 that may produce rain.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Feb 21, 2011 Brief Update

Feb 22 Morning: Today's update will be posted in the afternoon instead of the morning.

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Only a brief update covering the general highlights for this coming week will be posted. The 5-Day Forecast will be updated tomorrow morning, along with a more detailed discussion that may be posted in the morning as well.

Tomorrow: Cold temperatures will return to the area tomorrow, expected to be in the mid to upper 20s inland, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for the rest of the area, which is below the average high temperatures for this time of the year. A generally north wind is expected.

Friday Storm: A storm is expected to affect the region on Friday. While there is uncertainty with the exact track, which may range from one along the coast or just inland to one near the eastern Great Lakes, with the western track currently favored, regardless of the track, this storm is likely to produce rain for most of the area, which may be potentially heavy with as much as near or over 1 inch possible. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.

Sunday: There is the potential for a weak storm to affect the region on Sunday. While it is uncertain how it does so, there is the potential for mixed precipitation or rain at this time. More information will be posted on this as details become clearer.

Longer Range: Another storm is expected for March 1-2, with most models showing this as a rain event for the area. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.

Feb 21, 2011: Morning Storm Updates

4:30 PM: Second Wave To Stay South

As the first wave has left the region, there has been some slight clearing in the cloud cover with a little melting of the snowfall. Observed snow amounts were generally between 1 and 3 inches in southern Connecticut with 2 to 7 inches in SW Connecticut, northern New Jersey seeing 4 to 8 inches north of a boundary near I-80 and 2 to 5 inches south of there, 4 to 7 inches for SE NY, and 2 to 5 inches in NYC and Long Island. Cloud cover is generally cloudy again ahead of the second storm, however this storm will stay south of the area, providing no more than a few flakes for New York City and further north/east/WNW.

This second wave is currently entering Pennsylvania, moving generally west to east. As we saw last night when the first event started, some of the precipitation in Pennsylvania is virga, or snow that is not reaching the ground. For now, the storm will continue to move east, however it will be blocked from moving east to cover the rest of the area. As it moves further east, it will be suppressed and pushed south, forcing the storm to track east southeast. As a result, while places due west of New York City in central Pennsylvania may see snow, New York City will stay dry. This second wave will produce a more widespread heavy snow than this morning's storm, with a maximum snowfall of 10 to 12 inches expected in southern Pennsylvania.

With the storm staying south of the area, temperatures will drop to temperatures well below the average for this time of the year, reaching the single digits in the northern parts of the area by tomorrow morning and only peaking in the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area, compared to the average highs already in the 40s in NYC. Stay tuned for a more detailed discussion later tonight, discussing the warming temperatures later this week and more details about the next few storms, including the potential for heavy rain on Friday and another storm for March 1-2.




7:40 AM: Overnight, when it appeared that the storm's precipitation was weaker than originally expected and the first part of the storm failing to produce much snow, it still appeared that the areas seeing the heaviest snowfall would be in western New Jersey instead of Orange County, NY and could see up to a maximum of 5-6" as higher snow totals, but with otherwise a widespread 2-4 inches across the area.

This morning, we are seeing a narrow heavy snow band setting up over northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, SW Connecticut and parts of New York City, which is heavier than expected last night. This band is currently shrinking in size, however it will continue to produce moderate to heavy snow as it begins to shift south later this morning. There is no widespread moderate to heavy snow covering the entire area as originally expected, though in the places currently under the heavy snow band in northern New Jersey, southeastern NY and SW CT, expect the final totals between 5 and 8 inches of snow, with otherwise a general 2 to 5 inches across the area.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Feb 20, 2011 Brief Updates

Throughout the day today, I will post a few brief updates on the coming storms for tonight and Monday night, discussing the latest expectations and any potential changes in the forecast. The final storm forecast along with snow and scenario maps will be posted tonight.

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10 PM: Lowering Snow Forecast

Since this afternoon, there have been changes in the outlook for this storm. Looking at the radar, the storm is drier than expected, and there is also difficulty for the snow to move into the area as there is dry air in place, resulting in virga, or snow that is not reaching the ground. With the latest model guidance and the observations, here is the final outlook for the storm:

- Southeastern Connecticut will see the least snow in the area, with 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.
- A general 2 to 4 inches of snow are expected in most of the area, with the highest amounts towards western New Jersey with 3 to 6 inches of snow expected.
- Precipitation type will stay as snow for the entire area, as the storm will likely stay cold enough for snow to fall except for a brief period of mixing at the end south of NYC.

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6 PM: Snow Warning, Heavy Snow Watch In Effect

With the rest of this afternoon's models, the trend has been colder and snowier, with most of them now taking the heavy snow axis through northern New Jersey and southeastern New York with the heaviest snow located in Orange and Sussex counties, where the potential for as much as locally 6 to 7.5 inches of snow exists. While some sleet may mix in with the snow in NYC, the main precipitation type should be snow, with plain snow expected north of NYC.

The latest expectation is for a widespread 3 to 5 inches across the area, with 4 to 7 inches further west/northwest and 1.5 to 3.5 inches for eastern Connecticut. The next update will be posted later tonight along with a snow map and a scenario map.


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12 PM: More Snow Possible?

Last night, I mentioned in my discussion that the colder and southern solutions for the first wave were becoming more likely, with a moderate snowfall north of NYC. This south trend continued, with most models this morning showing a widespread moderate snow covering the area with only a little mixing in the south central parts of the area, bringing a widespread 3 to 6 inches across the area with the highest amounts towards Orange county, NY.

While I think that mixing with sleet will affect most, if not all of northern New Jersey by the late morning as the storm starts to end, with rain also possible in the southern parts of the area, the worst of the storm should fall as snow, with the potential for 2 to 4 inches of snow in NYC and 3 to 5 inches further northwest/north/northeast. As a result, I upgraded the Snow Watch to a Snow Warning and extended it a little further south than yesterday's Watch in northern New Jersey. There is still some slight uncertainty about the mixing issues and exactly how much snow falls, which will be sorted out later today and tonight.


The latest models have trended further north with the second wave, with some models such as the SREF and 12z NAM bringing nearly 0.25 inch of precipitation to NYC, which combined with temperatures in the 10s, would make this a high ratio snowfall with perhaps 2 to 4 inches of snow. At this time, I am thinking that this solution is too far north, and while I will watch it as the day goes on in case it becomes a new trend, I am currently expecting some light snow across most of the area, with up to 1 inch for the southern parts of the area. Stay tuned for more information on the second wave and how it may affect the area, if it does.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Feb 19, 2011: Moderate Snow Tomorrow Night

After yesterday's spring-like conditions, which also resulted in a rapid snow melt, ending nearly 2 months of consistent snow cover in parts of the area while only a few inches remain in other parts of the area, winter made a return to the area today with steadily dropping temperatures and strong wind gusts, generally between 45 and 60 mph across the area. The winds will calm down tonight as temperatures drop into the 10s for most of the area, however the dry conditions won't last for long, as a storm threatens to bring the first widespread accumulating snowfall to the area since February 1-2 on Sunday night.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring increasing cloud cover with a decreasing WNW wind, which may gust up to 20-30 mph in the morning. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s inland and in the mid to upper 30s for the rest of the area, with a few lower 40s possible in the immediate NYC area.


Tomorrow Night - Monday: Moderate Snow Expected

As mentioned yesterday, there were two possible scenarios, one of them taking the storm near the area with some light snow changing over to a mix and then rain, with the other scenario taking the storm further south, bringing a moderate snowfall to the area. There is still uncertainty with which solution is the correct one, though at this time it appears that the colder scenario may be the more likely one.

Tomorrow night, the storm is expected to be located near Chicago, racing east or ESE, reaching the Atlantic Ocean just south of Cape Cod by Monday afternoon. Light snow will spread from west to east across the area between 10 PM and 2 AM, and will become moderate by the middle of the overnight hours, with the heaviest snow focusing north of NYC. As 850 mb temperatures begin to warm up, a changeover will take place, but when, where and to what type of precipitation is not certain yet.

At this time, it appears that towards the morning hours, the southwestern and southern parts of the area change over to a mix of sleet, freezing rain and potentially rain, with this mix also spreading towards northeastern New Jersey and Long Island. Connecticut and interior Southeast New York appear to stay mostly snow at this time, however in the warmer case scenario, mixing could also reach these areas. By the time that the snow ends, at least 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected for NYC, 2 to 4 inches north of NYC, and 3 to 5 inches for the interior parts of the area, though these amouts are still subject to some changes with tomorrow's updates.

By noon-2 PM, the storm should end across the area, with some clearing in the cloud cover possible. As the area will stay in the cold side of the storm, temperatures will fail to warm up significantly, only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s for most places, however south of the area, especially south of the Pennsylvania/Maryland border, temperatures will surge well into the 60s, with even 70s returning into Virginia again.

There is still some uncertainty with the storm and which scenario verifies, and it is possible that we may end up with a warmer solution than the one suggested above. Several updates will be posted on this storm tomorrow regarding any possible changes to the forecast. Stay tuned for more information on this storm tomorrow.


Monday Night - Tuesday: Cold And Dry

The second storm that was originally mentioned with yesterday is now modeled to be south on all models, and with no support for anything more than some flurries reaching the area, I removed the mention of snow from the 5-Day Forecast. The second storm will stay to the south of the area, bringing a light to moderate snowfall for places such as southern New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.

Meanwhile, as cold air pushes south, temperatures in the area will drop well into the 10s for most of the area on Monday night, and even into the single digits for the interior parts of the area. While Tuesday will bring partly sunny skies, temperatures will fail to warm up much, only reaching the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area, well below the average high temperatures for this time of the year.

Temperatures will begin to warm up again after Tuesday, however, reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s by Wednesday, which will be followed by yet another storm potential between February 25-27.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Feb 18, 2011: Winter Returns Again

With a storm located well to the north of the area in southern Canada, partly to mostly cloudy skies, a warm air mass and a southwest wind, the area got an early taste of spring today, peaking in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area, with Newark even reaching the 70 degree mark, breaking their previous record high of 69 degrees for this day. This warmth is now coming to an end, however, as a cold front which previously resulted in a thunderstorm in parts of the area earlier this evening will bring much colder temperatures along with it, reminding us that winter is not over just yet.

Tomorrow will be a much colder day, but the wind will be the main issue, expected to gust between 50 and 60 mph across the area, and earlier this evening I issued a High Wind Watch for the area, which may be upgraded to a warning on Saturday morning. The wind will calm down by Sunday, however cloud cover will increase ahead of the next two storms, one on Monday morning and the other on Tuesday morning, and while these storms will likely bring the best chance of moderate to heavy snow north and south of NYC, some snow is still expected to fall in the area.


Tomorrow's Outlook: Very Windy

Tomorrow will bring much colder temperatures than those of today, expected to be steady in the lower to mid 30s inland and in the mid to upper 30s for the rest of the area, with some lower 40s possible for the immediate NYC area and further south/west.

The main story tomorrow, however, will be the wind. Windy conditions will begin developing tonight, with widespread windy conditions expected to affect the region throughout the day tomorrow. The windiest conditions appear to focus on Pennsylvania, however there will still be very windy conditions in the area, with a sustained WNW wind generally between 20 and 30 mph. Wind gusts will range from 45 mph to as much as 60 mph.


Sunday: Wind Calms Down

The wind will start to calm down tomorrow night, with gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph, however these gusts combined with the cold temperatures, in the 10s away from NYC, will lead to wind chills in the single digits across the area on Sunday morning, with wind chills potentially below zero for the interior parts of the area.

During the day, high temperatures will be warmer than those of Saturday, peaking in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area, however cloud cover will increase overnight as two storms approach the area from the west.


Monday And Tuesday: Snow Returns Into The Forecast

The area has not seen widespread snow falling since the February 1-2 ice storm. This is about to change, however, as the two upcoming storms will be cold enough to produce snow. There is still some slight uncertainty with the first storm and more uncertainty with the second wave of low pressure, but it does appear that the area will be spared from any big snow, with a rather complicated set up resulting in either the first storm too far north with the snow and the second storm too far south, or one of these storms bringing moderate snow, or both of them doing so. The question is how much snow falls.


Sunday Night - Monday Storm: The first storm will affect the area starting on Sunday night. A low pressure near Chicago on Sunday night will race eastward, reaching Cape Cod by Monday afternoon. There is still some slight uncertainty with the exact track, which could be slightly north or south of the track mentioned above, however this slight difference will have a large impact when it comes to the forecast.

The first scenario, currently supported by the models and the more likely scenario at this time, is the one I went with for tonight's forecast for now. Light snow will spread from west to east across the area between 10 PM and 4 AM, and as 850 mb and surface temperatures begin to warm up, the area starts to mix with and change over to rain/sleet from southwest to northeast. The best chance of light to moderate snow accumulation is for the interior northern parts of the area, where I may issue a Light Snow Alert with tomorrow's update.

The second scenario is one that does not have much support, but needs to be watched as it may result in a snowstorm for most of the area. This solution was also supported by the 00z NAM, where the storm tracks south enough to bring moderate snow for most of the area on Monday morning, changing over briefly to light rain before ending in the early afternoon. This solution would support a widespread moderate 3 to 6 snowfall from NYC and further west/north/east, in which case I may need to issue a Snow Watch. This solution only recently began showing up on the models and does not have much support, however it will be watched in case it becomes a new trend. Stay tuned for more information on this potential change in the forecast.

With both scenarios, the storm would end on Monday in the early afternoon, but what happens afterwards during the afternoon and evening hours again depends on the track. With the further north track, as the area is briefly in the warm sector of the storm, temperatures would briefly surge in the late afternoon well into the 40s for parts of the area and the lower-mid 50s for the immediate NYC area before dropping again in the evening. With the colder solution, temperatures would not rise as much, staying in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area.


Monday Night - Tuesday Storm: The second storm is the more uncertain one, but the one with more potential to bring a widespread moderate to heavy snowfall to parts of the region. As a very cold air mass in Canada pushes south behind the first storm, the second storm will be more suppressed, in fact the greatest threat of snow at this time is to the south and southwest of the area, meaning that if any precipitation falls in the area from this storm, it will be snow. The question is how much the storm is suppressed, which brings the range of possibilities from either some flurries to a 5-10 inch snowfall.

The second wave will begin developing in the Ohio Valley on Monday evening, moving east by Tuesday morning, though where it ends up and how strong it ends up is still uncertain. At this time, most of the models take this through southern Virginia, bringing a moderate to heavy snowfall for the central Mid Atlantic, focusing on Maryland and southern Pennsylvania into southern New Jersey, with some snow showers for the area. Some models, however, have been taking this further north, including the 00z NAM, bringing a moderate snowstorm to the area. At this time, I am favoring a solution in between the northern and southern scenarios, bringing some light snow to the area, however it is possible that the storm may trend north to bring a moderate snowstorm to the area. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.


Longer Range: Cold And Windy Again

Behind the second storm, strong cold air will push into the region, with windy conditions expected to return once again. High temperatures will be very cold compared to the average for this time of the year, expected to be in the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area for Wednesday, with low temperatures in the 10s. Temperatures will warm back up towards the average by Thursday, however, and the next storm potential returns by February 26.

Feb 18, 2011 Evening Update

A full update will be posted within the next 2 hours, though here are some short updates:


- An unexpected heavy thunderstorm moved west to east from northern New Jersey to New York City and into southern New England earlier this evening. This thunderstorm produced gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

- With the wind event for tomorrow, I issued a High Wind Watch for the area, which may be upgraded to a warning tomorrow morning. There is the potential for wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph across the area during the day tomorrow.

- Newark, NJ managed to reach 71 degrees today, breaking their previous record of 69 degrees set in 1981. Otherwise, temperatures were generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area, making this the warmest day since early December 2010.


The update later tonight will discuss in more details the return of much colder temperatures, the strong winds tomorrow, the two storms on Monday morning and Tuesday morning, and what we can expect after these storms exit the region on Tuesday afternoon.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Feb 17, 2011: Snow Potential Early Next Week

As a warmer air mass moved over the area with partly cloudy skies and a southwest wind, temperatures warmed up well over the forecast, even reaching the mid 60s in Newark! Tomorrow will be even warmer than today, with the potential for Newark to reach the upper 60s, though the warmth will quickly come to an end with a much colder and very windy Saturday, with the first potential snowfall in the area since early February returning for early next week.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a partly to mostly cloudy day with a southwest wind expected. As the cold front will move through the region, some isolated showers are possible in the evening hours, however any rain that does fall will be light and will not amount up to anything significant. High temperatures will be even warmer than today peaking in the lower to mid 60s for the western and central parts of the area, with mid 50s to lower 60s for the eastern parts of the area. There is the potential for places near and southwest of NYC to reach the upper 60s tomorrow.


Weekend Outlook: Much Colder And Windy

While temperatures behind the cold front will not be very cold, they will still return to near average levels, if not slightly below, with high temperatures expected to peak in the upper 30s to mid 40s on Saturday. A strong west wind is expected with wind speeds between 20 and 30 mph with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph, and while I did not type in the text for a Wind Alert today, I will issue a Wind Alert tomorrow with an update in the late afternoon.

The wind will calm down by Sunday, with temperatures expected to be similar to those of Saturday, however cloud cover will increase overnight ahead of the next storm.


Early-Mid Week: Two Storms Expected

What appeared to be a single storm is now expected to be two waves of low pressure affecting the region, one on Monday morning and the other on Tuesday morning, though there is still uncertainty with the timing. There is a lot of uncertainty on this time frame, and I will discuss this in more details with tomorrow's update, however the first wave is expected to either stay mostly to the north of the area with some light rain/snow showers and high temperatures peaking in the 40s and potentially lower 50s, or it could track further south and bring a cold rain/snow/sleet mix to the area.

The second wave will be further south, and will likely deliver a snowstorm with plenty of cold air, and this wave could either end up to the south of the area, bringing snow to the south, or near the area, bringing a moderate snowstorm to NYC. Stay tuned for more information with tomorrow's update.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Feb 16, 2011: Warm For Now, But Cold To Return

Today brought mostly sunny skies to the area along with mild temperatures warmer than those of yesterday, reaching the lower to upper 40s across the area with the lowest temperatures inland and along the immediate coast, with Newark reaching 50 degrees. Temperatures will continue to warm tomorrow and even more on Friday, however will crash down by the weekend along with a windy Saturday, as yet another cold spell affects the area with the potential for snow on Monday night into Tuesday.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a partly cloudy day across the area with a southwest wind expected. As a warmer air mass continues to push into the region, temperatures will warm up more than today, reaching the lower to mid 50s inland, mid to upper 50s for the immediate NYC area, with the lowest temperatures near the immediate coast with at least mid to upper 40s expected.

Tomorrow night, mild conditions are expected, with low temperatures above freezing for the entire area, reaching the mid to upper 30s inland and the upper 30s to mid 40s for the immediate NYC area. These mild overnight lows will help to melt the snow cover even more.


Friday And Weekend Outlook: Warm, Then Cold And Windy

Friday will be the warmest day of this warm spell, with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy as a cold front approaches, bringing the risk of an isolated shower in the late afternoon/evening hours. Except for the immediate coast, high temperatures will peak well into the 50s across the area, with a few lower 60s possible inland and lower to mid 60s expected for the immediate NYC area. With the passage of this cold front, however, conditions will quickly change.

On Friday night, temperatures will drop back into the 30s for most of the area with increasing winds, and Saturday will bring generally steady temperatures, only rising slightly to peak in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Windy conditions are expected, with the potential for wind speeds between 20 and 30 mph and gusts between 40 and 50 mph, potentially above 50 mph especially near the coast. A Wind Alert will likely be issued with tomorrow's update.


Sunday And Beyond: Increasing Uncertainty, But Snow Potential Exists

Sunday will bring slightly colder temperatures, generally in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area, however from this point there is increasing uncertainty with what happens, with some models such as the GGEM showing a strong cold air blast for Sunday night and Monday, with the GFS only showing weak cold air. What there is confidence with, however, is that a storm is expected between Monday and Tuesday and has the potential to bring snow to the area.

While the storm will likely track towards the Ohio Valley at first, there is expected to be a strong high pressure along with cold air to the north of the storm, making it likely that precipitation type in the northern side of the storm will be snow and the storm will be blocked from tracking too far north. The possibility is there, however, that the high pressure and the cold are so strong that the storm is completely suppressed, staying to the south of the area. The in between solution would bring snow to the area, with the potential for a moderate snowstorm.

At this time, the GFS is the northernmost model, though it still shows at least some wintry precipitation for the area, with its latest run bringing a moderate to heavy snowfall to the northern parts of the area. The GFS, however, is an outlier compared to the other models, which keep most of the snow to the south of the area, and the GFS is also much faster, bringing in precipitation already by Monday morning/afternoon with the storm already having cleared the region by Tuesday, while the other models that do bring precipitation starting the storm on Monday afternoon/evening and lasting through Tuesday. At this time, I am leaning more towards the other models with a more suppressed solution, and it is possible that the storm misses the area to the south, however there is still time for changes with the expectations, and it is possible that the storm may either bring little to no snow for the area, a moderate snowstorm, or a mixed rain/snow event for the area. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

**No Update Posted 2/15/11**

No discussion was posted tonight, though the 5-Day Forecast has been updated. Tomorrow's discussion will focus on the mild spell coming for Friday with temperatures likely to reach the lower to mid 60s in NYC, and the cold that follows along with an active storm time frame, with a storm on the 21st.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Feb 14, 2011: Cold And Windy Tonight

As a strong clipper brought rain and snow to the Northeast, partly sunny skies and a southwest wind ahead of a cold front led to temperatures rising above the averages across the region, but ended up exceeding the forecast, reaching the mid to upper 50s across most of the area and even 60 degrees in Newark! This makes today the warmest day in the area since December, however even warmer days are expected for the end of this week.

Before the warm temperatures return, a brief cold spell will affect the area tonight into tomorrow night along with windy conditions bringing gusts between 40 and 50 mph in parts of the area. Warmer temperatures will return by the end of the week with 60s returning for Friday, but this warmth will not last for long as a cold front on Saturday brings temperatures back to levels near or below average, with a stormy pattern developing starting on the 21st.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

As the cold front clears the region and a high pressure moves in from the west, windy conditions will continue through the morning, with gusts occasionally between 30 and 40 mph, but will calm down by the afternoon. A cold air mass will briefly move into the region, bringing very cold temperatures for the Northeast, and colder than average temperatures for the area, reaching the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area. A northwest wind is expected.


Wednesday - Saturday: Widespread 60s For Friday

The cool down for tomorrow will only be a brief one. A southwest wind will return for Wednesday along with a warmer air mass, leading to high temperatures rising well into the 40s across the area. Thursday will be even warmer, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area. Overnight lows on Thursday night will be unusually mild, in the mid to upper 30s for most of the area with upper 30s to mid 40s in the immediate NYC area and closer to the coast, which combined with the warm daytime temperatures, will help lead to the snow pack melting.

with Friday expected to be the warmest day. There is some slight uncertainty with how warm Friday gets, with some models showing temperatures in the lower 50s and others showing lower 60s. Given the set up, I am expecting high temperatures to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area at this time, though some minor changes are possible to the temperature forecast.

On Saturday, a cold front will move through, bringing windy conditions, the risk of isolated showers and a much colder air mass. While a return to a snowy pattern is not expected, this cold front will bring in temperatures closer to the average, with a stormy pattern developing by the 21st.

Sunday And Beyond: Cold, Then Stormy

Behind the cold front, temperatures are expected to return to below average levels, with high temperatures likely returning into the 30s and 20s on Sunday. The dry conditions will quickly come to an end, however, as a storm will affect the area on Monday and Tuesday.

As can be expected with a storm a week into the longer range, there is uncertainty with the smaller details of the storm, however looking at the set up, with a cold air mass initially in place and a high pressure moving out as the storm comes in, there is the potential for the storm to start with frozen precipitation, though whether the storm brings plain rain, a mixed/rain event, or a mostly snow/mixed event is still uncertain this far out. Stay tuned for more information on this storm as details become clearer.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Feb 13, 2011: NYC To Reach 50 Degrees Tomorrow

Today brought mostly cloudy skies across the area and a few snow showers as temperatures were warmer than yesterday's, generally in the 40s across the area. Tomorrow will be even warmer, reaching the 50 degree mark in NYC, and after a brief cold spell tomorrow night into Tuesday night, even warmer temperatures will return, reaching the 60s on Friday.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

As the storm mentioned yesterday will move through the northern Northeast tomorrow, a warm air mass will briefly move into the area with 850 mb temperatures between 6c and 9c, and along with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a southwest wind, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s for most of the area, with lower 50s in the immediate NYC area. Windy conditions will develop by the afternoon hours and continue through the evening and overnight hours. Tomorrow will be the warmest day across the area since January 1-2, almost a month and a half ago.


Tuesday - Thursday: From Cold To Warm

Tuesday will bring a brief cold spell across the area, along with windy conditions, as high temperatures only rise into the lower to upper 30s. The overnight hours will bring lows in the 10s north and west of NYC, however by Wednesday, a southwest wind returns, and high temperatures surge into the 40s again. Thursday will be even warmer, with highs in the 50s across the area, and overnight lows well above freezing in some places will help melt the snow pack quickly.


Friday And Beyond: Warm, Then Colder Again

As a storm develops in the Great Lakes region, warm air will push into the region, bringing high temperatures into the lower to mid 60s for parts of the area while the Northeast sees rain. Even in Northern Maine it is expected to be warm enough for rain to fall.

By Saturday, the storm's cold front will move through, with some showers expected but no washout. Colder temperatures then return to the region, close to the average for this time of the year, with a stormy pattern developing starting with a storm on the 21st. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Feb 12, 2011: April-Like Warmth Next Week

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the western parts of the area, and will be updated
further east later tonight.

Graphics will be added to this discussion later tonight.

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After a mostly sunny day yesterday, cloud cover increased overnight with scattered snow showers currently affecting parts of the area. These isolated snow showers will continue through the evening, however from this point temperatures will get even warmer, reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area tomorrow with a few snow showers in the morning, with Monday expected to reach the 50 degree mark in parts of the immediate NYC area.

Temperatures will slightly cool down for Tuesday, however will quickly warm up by the end of the week, even reaching the lower to mid 60s for NYC on Friday! This would be at least 20 degrees above the average high temperature for this time of the year, and is more similar to the average high temperature of April. Temperatures will cool down afterwards, but while a more stormy pattern may develop after the 21st, the main theme appears to be wet, not white.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring cloudy skies across the area. An area of light snow in the Northeast will affect parts of the area, bringing light snow tomorrow morning to the central and western parts of the area, with any precipitation in the afternoon falling in the form of light rain. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s for the western and eastern parts of the area, with lower 40s for the immediate NYC area. A southwest wind is expected.



Monday - Tuesday: Warm, Then Briefly Cooling Down


On Monday, a clipper in the Northeast is expected to bring snow to the northern and central parts of the Northeast, and will bring a cold front through the area later in the afternoon. With partly to mostly cloudy skies, 850 mb temperatures near 5 degrees celsius, and a southwest wind expected, high temperatures will rise well into the 40s for most of the area, and if there is enough sunshine, temperatures may reach the lower 50s for NYC and further south/west. The cold front will be a dry one, with no rain expected for the area.

Overnight, temperatures will cool down into the 20s for most of the area and potentially the upper 10s inland as a much colder air mass moves into the region, and while temperatures on Tuesday cool down, they won't be very cold, in the mid to upper 30s for most of the area and some lower 30s inland. While this is not very cold considering how cold it has been this winter, it is still slightly below the average high temperature for this time of the year.


Wednesday - Saturday: April-Like Warmth

On Wednesday, as a southwest wind returns along with partly sunny skies and a warmer air mass, temperatures will warm up quickly, reaching the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area for highs. The overnight hours may bring increased cloud cover and potentially an isolated shower or two, though Thursday will continue to warm up, with highs in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area.

Friday will be the warmest day, as 850 mb temperatures rise to near 10c along with partly sunny skies and a southwest wind, and temperatures will rise well into the 50s for most of the area. The immediate NYC area is expected to see high temperatures reach the lower 60s, with mid 60s possible in the warmer case scenario.

As a storm moves through the Great Lakes overnight and into southern Canada on Saturday, a cold front is expected to move through, bringing the risk of showers and temperatures dropping back down to colder levels on Sunday. A storm may be possible around the 21st, though the precipitation type is uncertain at this time. Stay tuned for more information on this potential storm.

Friday, February 11, 2011

**No Update Posted 2/11/11**

2/12 Morning: Today's update has been delayed and will be posted in the afternoon hours instead. For now, I updated the 5-Day Forecast for the immediate NYC area through Thursday, which will be updated for the rest of the area later this afternoon.

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No full update was posted tonight. The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the immediate NYC area only, and will be updated for the rest of the area tomorrow morning along with discussion for the next week and the longer range, including the potential for temperatures to reach 50 degrees on Monday and the 60s on Friday.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Feb 10, 2011: Warmer Times Ahead

After a weak storm passed through the southern Mid Atlantic, bringing widespread light snow to these areas and cloudy skies to the NYC area, today brought clearing skies with high temperatures similar to those of yesterday. As we are seeing mostly clear skies with a cold air mass in place, temperatures are quickly dropping across the area, and are expected to drop into the single digits away from New York City, and potentially below zero for the interior parts of the area.

Tonight will likely be the coldest night until next winter, however, as a warmer pattern will develop for the area starting this weekend, bringing temperatures into the 40s for most of the area on Sunday and Monday, and eventually bringing temperatures into the 50s and potentially even 60 degrees for the area by late next week.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

After the cold temperatures tonight, tomorrow will bring warmer temperatures than today, but the warmest has yet to come. High temperatures will be in the lower 30s inland and in the lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area. A WSW wind is expected.

Saturday - Tuesday: Mild

On Saturday, as a SW wind develops along with partly sunny skies and warming 850 mb temperatures, high temperatures will rise into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. Two weak clippers expected to move to the north of the area on Sunday and Monday will bring even warmer temperatures, which may peak in the upper 40s in NYC on Monday. As temperatures will be warm in the 850 mb and surface levels, if any precipitation falls, it should fall as rain, except for interior areas which may see a light mix in the morning and overnight hours.

On Tuesday, even though colder 850 mb temperatures move into the area, temperatures will fail to significantly cool down, only reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area for highs.


Wednesday And Beyond: Even Warmer

Starting on Wednesday, as a southwest wind develops and 850 mb temperatures begin to rise above the freezing point, much warmer temperatures will develop across the area, expected to be in the mid to upper 40s across most of the area. By Thursday, as a storm in Canada pushes out the cold air with another developing storm near the NW US, temperatures will warm up even more, and with Friday currently expected to be the warmest day, high temperatures may reach well into the 50s, and even lower 60s are possible in the warmer case scenario.

After Friday, temperatures appear to cool down, however another storm may affect the area around February 21. Stay tuned for more information on the long range.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Feb 9, 2011: Break From Cold Next Week

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was updated tonight.

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Today brought mostly cloudy skies to the area as a weak storm that was originally modeled to be a large snowstorm coming up the coast several days ago is bringing some light snow south of the area, though far eastern Long Island may see some snow showers. Temperatures were cold this morning, in the lower 0s for the interior parts of the area and in the mid 10s for New York City, with high temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area, at least 10 to 15 degrees below the average for this time for the year.

The cold will continue through tomorrow and tomorrow night, when low temperatures should be similar to those of this morning, however afterwards we will see a change in the pattern, with the return of warmer temperatures, and temperatures may even reach and pass the 50 degree mark by the end of next week.


Tonight And Tomorrow: Storm Passes To South

Several days ago, the model guidance was suggesting the potential for a strong storm that would move up the coast, bringing heavy snowfall to the Interstate 95 corridor before drawing in an extremely cold air mass with record low temperatures. That possibility was one that needed to be watched, however given that it was in the longer range of the models, a change in the models was expected, as models rarely tend to continue showing the same solutions from the long range through the short range without any changes.

As we went into the medium range, there was a change with the model solutions, however this change was to show a much weaker storm staying out to sea. The models trended away from a phased storm, and the new expectation was for a weak low pressure to remain well south of the area. Even then, some models had difficulty handling this storm, especially the GFS, which 2-3 days ago failed to even show a storm, only showing isolated rain/snow showers for the Southeast. Since then, the models have trended further north and west, a typical trend which we observed in the short range with storms this winter, but this is still not a trend big enough to bring snow to the area except for far eastern Long Island.


For the rest of tonight, we will see mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with light snow showers possible for far eastern Long Island, with the storm bringing light snow to the southern and central Mid Atlantic. Low temperatures will not be as cold due to the cloud cover, in the lower to mid 10s inland and in the mid 10s to mid 20s for the rest of the area.

Tomorrow will bring clearing skies to the area, with high temperatures similar to today, in the mid to upper 20s inland and the upper 20s to lower 30s for the rest of the area. A WNW wind is expected.


Friday And Saturday: Warming Up

Since the start of January, the area has seen temperatures consistently below average, with only a few days with temperatures near or above average, being the warmer temperatures we saw on Sunday and Monday. We will be seeing a pattern change over the next few days, however, that will make near to above average temperatures more frequent at least for now.

Tomorrow night will still bring cold temperatures for the area, with lows in the lower 0s inland and in the mid 10s for NYC, however Friday will bring warmer temperatures, in the lower 30s inland and the lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area as 850 mb temperatures warm up and a SW wind develops. On Saturday, as a southwest wind continues, high temperatures will warm up even more, into the lower to upper 30s across the area. Overnight lows will be rather mild in comparison to the current low temperatures, in the 20s across the area, but with increasing clouds.


Sunday - Monday: Weak Clipper Brings More Warmth

A weak clipper is expected to pass to the north of the area on Sunday, bringing light to moderate snow for the Northeast, however this clipper will push out the cold in the area even more. Other than isolated rain showers, a southwest wind is expected with mostly cloudy skies, and high temperatures will warm up into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Monday will bring partly cloudy skies but with even warmer temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 40s across most of the area, and a few upper 40s cannot be ruled out.


Calm weather is expected for next week, however another warm up, even stronger than the Sunday/Monday one, will be on its way for the end of next week. Stay tuned for more information on the second warm up with tomorrow's update.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Feb 8, 2011: Cold Week, Warmer Next Week

Note: Due to technical difficulties, tonight's update will be brief, and the 5-Day Forecast page was updated for the immediate NYC area only.

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After the storm which brought a light rain/mix to the area overnight, cloud cover cleared up today as winds increased and temperatures steadily dropped. Tonight will bring cold temperatures, in the single digits away from NYC, which will lead to wind chills below zero when combined with the wind. Colder temperatures will continue through the mid week, however afterwards warmth will finally begin to return.

Week Ahead: Cold Continues

Tomorrow will bring highs in the 20s across the area, however Thursday will be the coldest day, with highs only in the upper 10s to mid 20s across the area with a few upper 20s possible in the immediate NYC area. Thursday night will have lows again in the single digits away from NYC, with Friday warming up into the upper 20s and lower-mid 30s.

Longer Range: Warmth Returns

On Sunday, temperatures will warm up into the upper 30s to mid 40s as a storm brings light rain but mostly stays to the north of the area. Monday will bring slightly warmer temperatures, with Tuesday cooling down again. Another warm up, however, is possible by the end of next week. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Feb 7, 2011: Rain/Mix, Then Cold And Windy

Today was a mostly cloudy day across the area with mild temperatures observed once again, in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area, helping the snow pack in place melt a little more. A storm is currently moving in, bringing light rain along with a light snow/mix further inland, with a cold air blast to follow behind this storm, which along with windy conditions, will send wind chills below zero across the area by Wednesday morning. This will be the last strong cold spell for a while, however, as we will see a pattern change starting this coming weekend.


Tonight And Tomorrow: Storm Bring Rain, Mix

Looking at the current radar, posted to the left, there is light to moderate rain affecting most of the area, with a wintry mix in the western parts of the area. A large dry slot is moving in from the southwest, however, which will prevent moderate to heavy precipitation from affecting the area tonight. The area will end up between two areas of precipitation, one of them off the coast, and the other one being a moderate snowstorm for places such as Pennsylvania and New York. By the morning, precipitation should end as snow inland with accumulations between 1/2 and 2 inches possible, a light rain/snow mix for the immediate NYC area with no accumulations, and rain for the eastern parts of the area.

Clearing skies are expected tomorrow with dropping temperatures by the afternoon as a much colder air mass moves in, however the wind will also pick up, with gusts up to 40 mph expected across the area. These gusty winds will continue into the overnight hours, and when combined with temperatures in the single digits north and west of NYC, the wind will lead to wind chills below zero across most of the area, and potentially reaching -10 degrees in the interior parts of the area. I may issue a Cold Alert for the interior parts of the area tomorrow.


Mid To Late Week: Cold, Windy And Dry

After the cold temperatures on Wednesday morning, the wind will relax throughout the day, but high temperatures will remain cold, in the mid to upper 20s across the area with a few lower 30s possible in the immediate NYC area. Afterwards, a storm will move into the southern Mid Atlantic, however it will miss the area. The models, however, are consistent with the storm staying to the south of the area, and with the set up not very favorable for this to come up the coast as a stronger system, it will take a big change for it to become this favorable, which is nearly impossible with only 2 days left. I am expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies for the area on Thursday with cold conditions expected to continue.

Stay tuned for an update tomorrow that will discuss the longer range, including the warm up that will come starting in the weekend.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Feb 6, 2011: Rain/Snow Mix Tomorrow Night

Notes: The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated for the immediate NYC area and places further west, and I issued a Light Snow Alert for the western parts of the area earlier this evening.


Tomorrow's Storm: Light Snow Inland, Rain/Mix For NYC/Coast

Today was a mostly sunny and mild day across the areas as high temperatures unexpectedly surged into the lower to mid 40s. Tomorrow will be another mild day with similar temperatures, but mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are expected as a storm moves in.

We are currently at a point similar to yesterday's storm, where a day before the storm, the models did not have a good handle on the storm track and its impact across the region. The models are still not very consistent for this storm, with the recent NAM run having trended wetter. Regardless of the track, there is a good idea on the general impact on the area from this storm.

We are looking at rain moving into the area around the evening hours, which will become steadier by the overnight hours. 850 mb temperatures will be below zero degrees celsius, however 925 mb and surface temperatures are still above freezing for a good part of the area, leading to rain for the immediate NYC area and places further east, potentially mixing with snow towards the end of the storm in the immediate suburbs of NYC. The western parts of the area, however, will likely see temperatures cold enough for snow mixing in with the rain. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland, and in the lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area.


With mild surface temperatures, it will be hard for any snow to stick, however there is the potential for at least 1 to 3 inches of snow for the western parts of the area, where I issued a Light Snow Alert. It is possible that temperatures may be colder, with more accumulations inland, there could be more mixing with less accumulations, or the storm could be further east with a drier outcome. More information on this storm will be posted tomorrow.


Mid-Late Next Week: Cold, Then Potential Storm

Wednesday will bring temperatures slightly warmer than those of Monday night with clearing skies, but windy conditions are expected with the potential for wind gusts near or over 30 mph. On Tuesday night, as a colder air mass moves into the area, temperatures will quickly drop overnight, reaching the single digits north and west of NYC, with the potential for temperatures to drop near or slightly below zero degrees for the interior areas in the colder case scenario, which at this time is unlikely but will be watched. With windy conditions expected, wind chills will be in the single digits and negative single digits across the area overnight into Wednesday morning.

By Thursday, another storm is expected to move towards the region, however its impact on the area, if any, is still uncertain. All of the models keep most of the storm to the south of the area, with the northernmost model solutions only showing light snow for the area. Given the trends of this winter, and the fact that this is still 4 days out, there is time for the scenario to change, and I expect the storm to trend north and west of where it is now on the models, however how far north/west it trends is still a question, and impacts may range from a storm clipping the coast with light snow, to a snowstorm for the Interstate 95 corridor, to a storm moving up the coast with a snowstorm west of I-95 and mixing issues for the immediate NYC area. More information will be posted on this storm once uncertainty decreases.