Sept 14: Update On Tropics, Storm Thursday Night

Notes:

- A new poll has been added for your thoughts on early next week and what temperatures it may bring. Vote your thoughts in the poll, which will close on Sunday.

- The 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the area.

----------------------------------------------------

With a partly sunny day today, things are now cooling down as a cold air mass enters the area. Low temperatures tonight will be very chilly, in the 40s for most of the area except for Long Island and NYC. Despite this, things will warm up in the longer range, with more rain likely for Thursday night and potentially strong storms.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, and in the lower to mid 70s for the rest of the area.

Thursday Night Storm Update:

On Thursday, highs will peak in the lower to mid 70s for most of the area with upper 60s-lower 70s for Long Island/S CT due to increasing cloud cover ahead of a cold front. Most of the storm's rain will fall well to our north, but a cold front will pass through overnight, bringing a squall line with locally heavy storms. Gusty winds are also possible on Thursday night, especially when the storms move through. Rainfall amounts up to 1/4 inch are expected, though amounts locally up to 1/2 or 3/4 inch are possible, mainly towards the northern and NW parts of the area.

Temperatures will be steady or slowly rise before the cold front moves through, with dropping temperatures and clearing skies afterwards. Friday will be a dry and partly sunny day with highs in the mid 70s across the area.

Saturday And Longer Range: Warm Up, Significant Warm Up Possible

On Saturday, a strong cold front will be well to our west, with warming temperatures, reaching the mid 70s for most of the area, but upper 60s to lower 70s for S CT/Long Island. On Sunday, as the cold front approaches but weakens, highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s for NYC, with a slightly cooler air mass possible for Monday, though highs shouldn't be much below average. By Tuesday and Wednesday, however, a strong storm could organize to our NW, and it could draw in a large ridge, with highs in the 80s and even lower 90s for the Mid Atlantic up to NYC. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.


Tropics: Igor, Julia, And Now Karl


Hurricane Igor: Almost A Category 5 Hurricane

Hurricane Igor, currently east of the northernmost Leeward Islands, has weakened slightly over the last day, but is currently strengthening rather quickly, and with a favorable environment, may briefly become a Category 5 hurricane late tonight, however this is uncertain as Igor's eyewall structure is not as organized as it previously was, being why it is more likely to stay as a high-end Category 4 hurricane. To Igor's northwest, there is a less favorable environment, and Igor should start to weaken in the next few days. About its track, it is not expected to affect the East Coast directly, but at this time, it is likely to approach Bermuda. While the models show Igor slightly west of Bermuda, it could end up close enough to bring hurricane conditions to the island. Stay tuned for more details on Igor over the next few days.

Hurricane Julia: Nearly A Category 2 Hurricane

Hurricane Julia in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is slowly intensifying, and is almost a Category 2 hurricane, if not one already. Due to increasingly unfavorable conditions to Julia's NW, it is likely to peak over the next day or two, then start to weaken. Julia will stay away from land.

Tropical Storm Karl To Make 2 Landfalls In Mexico

The tropical invest in the Caribbean that has been briefly mentioned a few days ago has been named Tropical Storm Karl today, and is currently at 45 mph sustained winds and a minimum pressure of 999 mb. Karl is running out of time before making landfall in the Yucatan peninsula, however with a favorable environment, it is quickly intensifying, and may reach 60 mph before its first landfall. Afterwards, it should weaken to a tropical depression, but with a favorable environment again in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Karl will likely become a strong tropical storm before its second landfall, and a Category 1 hurricane cannot be ruled out.