Sept 15: Stormy And Windy Thursday Night

Notes:

- The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight.
- The poll for your thoughts on the hottest temperature around Wednesday remains open. Vote your thoughts in the poll, which will remain open until Sunday.

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Today brought mostly sunny skies and chilly temperatures as a cool air mass moved into the area, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 60s inland to the upper 60s to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area. Tonight will be a very chilly one, with lows in the 40s for most of the area except for NYC and most of Long Island.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring increasing clouds to the area, with a south wind expected. With a sharp gradient in temperatures expected, the interior areas as well as Long Island/S CT will peak in the lower 70s with a few upper 60s possible, lower to mid 70s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 70s for NYC and closer to the coast. Places SW of NYC may reach the lower 80s.

Meanwhile, a strong storm will be approaching the area from the northwest. The storm track will stay to our north, leading to heavy rain in the interior Northeast and New England, with a round of severe storms for the western parts of the region south of the storm track due to the cold front. South of the storm track, a squall line will approach the area along the cold front, affecting the area between 8 PM and 4 AM. Locally heavy rainfall is expected along with thunderstorms, with strong wind gusts possible with the storms. Other than the storms, windy conditions are still expected on Thursday night, especially for Long Island and S CT, where wind gusts may reach 50 mph. Low temperatures will stay steady overnight, and may slightly rise ahead of the storms.

Friday - Sunday: Cooler, Then Warming Up

On Friday, mainly cloudy skies are expected, with highs in the lower to mid 70s, though the cloud cover will be clearing by the late day. Saturday will be a comfortable day with slightly warmer temperatures, with Sunday warming up to the mid 70s to lower 80s ahead of a cold front. Scattered showers are possible on Sunday and Sunday night due to the cold front.

Monday - Wednesday: Cool, Then Unseasonably Warm

After the cold front moves through on Sunday, a cooler air mass will enter the area for Monday. There is uncertainty with how strong the air mass is, however at this time I am thinking 850 mb temperatures could be near 6c, leading to highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the area, with lows on Monday night chilly, similar to those of tonight. Tuesday is likely to be another relatively chilly day.

By Wednesday, however, a strong storm will organize well to our northwest, drawing in an unseasonably warm air mass into the region. High temperatures will likely pass the 80 degree mark, and according to some models, may reach the 90 degree mark ahead of the cold front, which will move through around Thursday, bringing some more rain to the area and cooler temperatures. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.


Tropics: 2 Hurricanes Active, Another One To Follow


Hurricane Igor:

Hurricane Igor last night quickly strengthened, and peaked at 155 mph last night, just below Category 5 intensity, however it is possible it may have peaked as one. Igor has since weakened due to a less favorable environment, but has maintained Category 4 intensity. Igor is currently organizing itself and may slightly strengthen again, but it has probably reached its peak.

For the longer range, Igor will continue to move WNW to NW, and will switch towards a NNW then north track, taking it close to Bermuda as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. Bermuda needs to closely follow Igor, as it may bring hurricane or tropical storm conditions to the island.

Hurricane Julia: Unexpected Strengthening Leads To Cat 4

Last night, Hurricane Julia was slowly strengthening and was likely to peak as a category 2 hurricane, with a window of at lteast 2 days for intensification, but unlike what all of the forecasts and models suggested, Julia unexpectedly rapidly intensified, and like Igor, reached Category 4 intensity this morning. This was a notable event, as in history, there was only one other occasion where two category 4 hurricanes were present at the same time in the Atlantic Ocean, and Julia also set the record for the most intense hurricane this far east, breaking the previous record Hurricane Fred set last year as a Category 3 hurricane.

With a less favorable environment ahead of Julia, weakening is expected, and Julia most likely has reached its peak.

Tropical Storm Karl: Soon To Be Hurricane

As expected, Karl quickly strengthened yesterday, and made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula with 65 mph sustained winds. Karl is currently over the Yucatan and is down to a 40 mph tropical storm, however it will soon enter the Gulf of Mexico. Despite Karl likely to be a tropical depression by then, with a favorable environment there, quick strengthening is likely once again, and Karl is expected to become a hurricane by the time that it makes landfall in Mexico.

Brief note on overall season: When lowering my call from 15-18 to 12-16 named storms, it was with the thought that some waves would not develop. While I did expect much higher activity by this time period, almost all of the tropical waves developed, which exceeded my expectations. While it is already late in the season, I am thinking that we could end up with 16 to 19 named storms, 8 to 12 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes when the season ends.