Tuesday, April 30, 2013

April 30, 2013: Pattern To Continue This Week, Next Weekend

Forecast Highlights:

The showers that briefly reached the area yesterday have retreated back to the south earlier today, with clearing skies and temperatures warming up into the 60s. With a high pressure persisting over the region, mostly to partly sunny skies and temperatures near to slightly below average will persist through the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend, with any rain delayed until at least early-mid next week.

Monday, April 29, 2013

April 29, 2013: Drier, Warmer Trend Expected This Week

Forecast Highlights:

With a slow pattern continuing across the region, scattered showers were observed in the area today with temperatures mostly in the 50s. These showers will slowly shift south on Tuesday, exiting overnight as sunnier and dry conditions take hold for the rest of the week through next weekend, with temperatures warming back up into the 60s and possibly the 70s north of NYC.

Sunday, April 28, 2013

April 28, 2013: Clouds, Showers Briefly Return Mon-Tues

Forecast Highlights:

A noticeably slower pattern takes hold over the next week, setting up for a more complex forecast with several interesting features in the pattern, including a persistent east/NE flow that keeps the area initially cloudy and chilly with some showers, a blocking pattern later in the week where temperatures remain seasonable near NYC with the warmth displaced well to the north over Canada, and a late week cold front that stalls in the central US where another late season snowstorm is possible.

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Saturday, April 27, 2013

**No Updates Posted 4/26 And 4/27/13**

No forecast updates were posted on Friday and Saturday, April 26-27, 2013. The next update will be posted on Sunday, 4/28.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

April 25, 2013: Mostly Sunny, Seasonable Weekend

Forecast Highlights:

Following last night's cold front, a high pressure is expected to settle over the region through the middle of next week, resulting in a stretch of seasonable temperatures, sunshine and generally dry conditions, although a system to the west needs to be watched for possible scattered showers and slightly cooler temperatures into the early-mid week.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

April 24, 2013: Seasonable, Dry Pattern Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

Warm temperatures briefly surged into parts of the region today, resulting in widespread high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A cold front will move through tonight, producing a few showers followed by slightly cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday. A high pressure will remain parked over the region, resulting in sunshine and seasonable temperatures persisting through the weekend into most of next week.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

April 23, 2013: Brief Warmth, Some Rain Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

A weak coastal low stayed east of the area today, resulting in cloudy skies, areas of drizzle, and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Temperatures will be much warmer on Wednesday, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s from NYC and further north/west, but this surge of warmth will be short lived as highs return into the upper 50s to mid 60s range for the late week and next weekend, slowly warming up towards next week.

Monday, April 22, 2013

April 22, 2013: Slightly Warmer For Weds, Late Week

Forecast Highlights:

A weak low pressure is expected to develop and track offshore tonight and tomorrow, with more sunshine for western areas and scattered showers for eastern areas. Temperatures will briefly warm up well into the 60s north and west of NYC on Wednesday with a weak cold front overnight producing scattered showers as temperatures remain warmer than the early week but near to slightly cooler than average through the late week and next weekend.

April 21, 2013: Another Chilly Night

Forecast Highlights:

Another night of cool temperatures is expected with lows falling to near or slightly below freezing inland. A weak low pressure will track to the east on Monday and Tuesday, keeping temperatures cooler than average with increased cloud cover. Aside from a brief warm up on Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front, temperatures are generally expected to remain mostly near to below average through the rest of the week and likely into next weekend and beyond.

Sunday, April 21, 2013

April 20, 2013: Cooler Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

Following last night's cold front which produced locally heavy rain, a cooler pattern returned with highs today mostly in the mid 50s to low 60s, with frost expected tonight for the immediate NYC area, southern CT and Long Island. Temperatures will mostly remain in the 50s to low 60s through next week with increased cloud cover and some showers, especially on Wednesday night.

Friday, April 19, 2013

April 19, 2013: After T-Storms, Chilly Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

A strong cold front is currently moving through the region, producing widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms along a squall line from New York state into the Southeast. The front will move through the area tonight, removing the mild air mass with temperatures below average for the weekend, peaking in the 50s for highs and the 30s for lows. The cooler than average temperatures will continue through most of next week as well with frequent cloud cover and showers expected again.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

April 18, 2013: Fri Night Storms, Then Cooler

Reminder: Daily updates will resume starting tomorrow, on Friday, April 19.

Forecast Highlights:

Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, mostly peaking in the mid 50s to low 60s, but with 70s expected to return for Friday followed by a cold front overnight producing heavy rain, thunder and wind. Cooler temperatures are expected to return by the weekend, with rain again expected for early-mid next week but with the cooler than average temperatures to continue as well.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

April 16, 2013: Thunderstorms Expected Friday Night

Reminder: The blog will remain in a limited updating schedule through Friday, April 19. Until then, updates will be posted every 2 days.

Forecast Highlights:

With a warmer air mass over the region, temperatures reached the low to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 50s to low 60s in Long Island/S CT. Scattered showers are expected tonight and are possible on Wednesday and Thursday, with another short lasting warmth surge on Friday ahead of a cold front expected to produce thunderstorms overnight. A sustained warm pattern is still not expected, however, with chilly temperatures to return for the weekend into next week.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

April 14, 2013: Mild Week, Friday Night Thunderstorms

Reminder: The blog will remain in a limited updating schedule through Friday, April 19. Until then, updates will be posted every 2 days.

Forecast Highlights:

Following a seasonable and dry weekend, the weather pattern becomes active again for this coming week, as with last week. Temperatures will warm up into the 60s with a few 70s possible on Wednesday and especially Friday, with scattered showers during the mid-late week until a strong cold front tracks through the region on Friday night, producing rain and thunderstorms followed by a repeat of this weekend with cooler and dry conditions.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

April 12, 2013: Seasonable Weekend Ahead

Reminder: The blog will remain in a limited updating schedule through Friday, April 19. Until then, updates will be posted every 2 days.

Forecast Highlights:

Following the clearing of today's storm, mostly to partly sunny skies are expected for the weekend with seasonable temperatures, peaking in the 50s to low 60s. Warmer temperatures are expected for next week, back into the 60s and 70s, but with a cold front possible towards the mid week with another late week storm expected.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

April 10, 2013 Brief Update

Wednesday, April 10 Observations:

Following the record heat on April 9, the frontal boundary shifted south into the area, resulting in a significant temperature contrast over the area. Southwestern locations towards central and northern NJ again reached the upper 70s to mid 80s, with Somerville, NJ peaking at 85 degrees, even warmer than the previous day. Connecticut and Long Island, however, were significantly colder, with Long Island reaching the upper 60s to low 70s and southern Connecticut the mid to upper 60s.

Thunderstorms from a severe weather outbreak in the northern Ohio Valley tracked into the region by the late afternoon and evening hours, producing severe thunderstorms over parts of Pennsylvania. These storms weakened below severe levels as they entered the more stable air mass over the area, resulting in brief heavy rain, although there was a strong wind report in Suffolk county.

Forecast Overview:

As the radar to the left shows, severe thunderstorms are currently tracking southeast through Pennsylvania. As the frontal boundary has now shifted south of NYC, thunderstorms are not expected for the rest of tonight into Thursday and Friday. Mainly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday with scattered showers and highs in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area, along with light E/ENE winds.

The low pressure in the central US will affect the region on Friday, but with the frontal boundary remaining south of the area, the low will track south of the area, with periods of heavy rain expected mainly before the late afternoon hours, generally near or over 3/4 inch for most of the area. Highs are likely to peak in the 50s to possibly upper 40s north and east of NYC, and in the mid 50s to low 60s west and south of NYC.

The cold front will clear the area on Friday night, with partly to mostly sunny skies for the weekend and highs in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area, perhaps reaching the low 60s near the immediate NYC area. Cold temperatures are expected overnight falling into the mid to upper 30s for most of the area outside of NYC, expected to fall into the low 40s, with Sunday slightly cooler than Saturday, peaking in the mid 50s. Temperatures are expected to warm back into the 60s and possibly the low 70s next week as ridging builds into the East, but with a sustained warm pattern unlikely at this time with rain possible towards the middle of next week.

**4/10/13 Blog Statement**

Blog Statement: Due to a busy schedule, blog updating will remain limited for the rest of this week and most of next week, with updates once every 2 days. Daily updates are scheduled to be resumed by Friday, April 19.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

April 9, 2013: Summer-Like Heat Observed Today

Forecast Highlights:

With a frontal boundary remaining to the north of the area, temperatures surged to summertime averages throughout the Mid Atlantic region, breaking records in parts of the NYC area. Similar warmth is expected to continue on Wednesday, but the heat will be short lasting as a back door cold front moves through on Thursday, resulting in much cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover ahead of a low pressure expected to produce heavy rain on Friday.

April 8, 2013 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:

Tuesday - Wednesday: After scattered showers and some thunder especially north of NYC tonight, partly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s from NYC and north/west, approaching 80 degrees near parts of NE NJ. Cooler temperatures are expected further east, peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s in most of Long Island and southern CT.

The next wave of low pressure will stay north of the area on Tuesday night, setting up for an even warmer Wednesday with widespread highs in the upper 70s from NYC and north/west, reaching the low 80s in parts of NE NJ and NYC. Southern CT is expected to reach the low to mid 70s, with Long Island ranging from upper 60s further east to mid-upper 70s further west.

Thursday - Friday: The frontal boundary will gradually shift south on Wednesday night into Thursday, and is expected to end up over the area during the day. As of the latest expectation, this will keep southwestern parts of the area warm, but northeastern parts with much cooler temperatures with overcast skies and scattered showers. At this time, highs are expected to peak in the upper 60s to low 70s in northern NJ, upper 50s to mid 60s in SE NY and NYC, and mid to upper 50s in Long Island and southern CT. The temperature outlook for Thursday is tricky due to the boundary ending up over the area, and confidence on forecast highs is lower than the other days.

A low pressure responsible for a major snowstorm and a severe weather outbreak in the central US will move into the region on Friday, resulting in widespread rain, locally over 1 inch in parts of the area. Once again, the model guidance diverges regarding where the low tracks. The GFS is the northernmost scenario, taking the storm well north of the area, while the CMC and ECM take the low south of the area, with the CMC over southern NJ. Both of these scenarios would result in heavy rain, but with the former resulting in a brief surge of warmth into the 60s and low 70s for highs, and the latter in a cold rain with highs in the 50s and possibly 40s inland. With slower timing of the storm than first expected, rain is expected to last through the majority of the day before ending by the evening or early overnight hours. Mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected for the weekend with highs generally in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s outside of NYC, perhaps falling below freezing for interior areas.

Monday, April 8, 2013

April 7, 2013: May-Like Warmth This Week

Forecast Highlights:

With a ridge building into the region and a frontal boundary staying mostly north of the area, a warm pattern is expected across parts of the region for the majority of this coming week with conditions much more late spring-like as highs reach the 70s in most of the area. The warmth isn't entirely here to stay, however, as a cold front will produce rain and possible thunderstorms on Friday followed by a brief yet relatively strong cool down with sub-freezing lows possible again.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

April 6, 2013: Warmer Pattern Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

A trough briefly moved into the region today, producing widespread cold temperatures this morning, likely the last for a while given the upcoming warmer pattern, with highs slightly cooler than average, peaking in the 50s. A ridge is expected to build into the region with warmer temperatures persistently staying in the 60s and 70s starting on Monday and lasting through the majority of next week until a cold front moves through early on Friday.

Saturday, April 6, 2013

April 5, 2013: Warmer Start, Stormier Ending Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

A coastal low passed southeast of the area this morning, which was followed by clearing skies and warmer temperatures, reaching the 50s across most of the area. A gradual warm up is expected to continue, with highs reaching the 60s for Sunday through Tuesday, possibly slightly cooling down but remaining generally mild as rain affects the area by the end of next week.

Friday, April 5, 2013

April 4, 2013: 60+ Degrees Return Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

Following the departure of a strong trough that has been in place for the last few days, temperatures warmed up across the region, reaching the 50s across most of the area today. While a significant warm pattern is not expected, the gradual warm up will continue with a more spring-like pattern across the region, with highs in the 50s and 60s through the weekend and most of next week until a storm affects the region by the end of next week.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

April 3, 2013: Pattern Gradually Trending Warmer

Forecast Highlights:

The strong trough over the region producing cold and windy conditions is likely the last strong cool down of this magnitude as the pattern begins to gradually trend warmer afterwards, with temperatures climbing to warmer than average passing 60 degrees, but with increased storminess possible especially towards the middle of next week.

Monday, April 1, 2013

April 1, 2013: Cold Again This Week

Forecast Highlights:

The brief warm up ended today with a cold front that moved through, producing locally strong thunderstorms over New England, more than expected, with scattered showers in the NYC area with windy conditions. A strong trough will return for most of this week with chilly temperatures expected again, dropping below freezing overnight, but with the cold pattern gradually coming to an end especially after a coastal low on Friday.

Mar 31, 2013: Early April Freeze This Week

Forecast Highlights:

More cloud cover was observed today with temperatures again in the 50s as a weak storm affected the area with light rain, generally under 1/4 inch. Warmer temperatures are expected again on Monday, but with a trough expected to return for most of the week with temperatures again colder than average, dropping below freezing overnight for most of the area. The cold pattern overall is gradually weakening, however, with temperatures gradually trending warmer towards the longer range.