- The poll for Earl on whether it will directly affect the NYC area or not has ended, with a total of 26 votes. Here are the results:
14 - Yes (53%)
12 - No (46%)
- While a small update may be posted tomorrow, this is the final full forecast for Hurricane Earl. Some updates will be posted tomorrow, with the next update afterwards to be posted on Saturday, after Earl has left the region, with more details on the weekend and next week.
Hurricane Earl's Final Forecast:

Earl's Intensity Forecast: Earl is currently more disorganized than it was earlier today, and the latest observations are showing that Earl is weakening. Earl could organize itself more over the next day and slightly strengthen, but it has reached its peak. Earl has maintained its strong intensity quite far north, and is likely one of the strongest storms near the East Coast around its latitude, and with rapid weakening of Earl unlikely for the short term, I delayed the time that Earl weakens to a Category 2 hurricane, but it should still be a Cat 2 hurricane when it passes to the east of the area. Earl will then interact with the trough to its west, and transition into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Earl's Track Forecast: The models are starting to reach a consensus, although there are still some minor differences. Even the NOGAPS, which showed a direct hit for Long Island, has now corrected itself further east, though I am keeping a far eastern Long Island near miss in the westernmost end of the uncertainty cone, even though this solution is very unlikely to happen. However, as we are now in the shorter range, the current observations are more important than the models. Earl has been moving north with some wobbles to the NNW or NNE lately, and these can be expected as hurricanes do not travel in completely straight paths, but these wobbles are only temporary, and Earl will start to move more NNE than N over the next 12 hours.
The cold front and trough are currently over the central United States, where they were expected to be at this time, and continue to move east. There could be slight changes in the timing that could have a slight impact on Earl's short term track, but a significant change in Earl's track is unlikely to happen, unless the trough starts to tilt negatively much sooner than expected, however that is unlikely at this time. Earl will then start to feel the effects of the trough and turn more northeast, interacting with it and starting to turn into an extra-tropical cyclone. At this time, I have my forecast track for Earl very slightly east of yesterday's track, but overall it has the same idea, with a near miss for eastern North Carolina and Cape Cod.
I will likely post a few updates tomorrow morning, which if I do, they will focus on the latest observations and what that may mean on Earl's track. Stay tuned for more details on that.
Earl's Forecast Wind, Rain, Impact Maps


The worst threat from Earl, however, will be its storm surge and large waves, as with Earl close to the East Coast, whether it directly hits the coast or not, there will likely be damage along the coast.
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