Dec 6: Cold Week, Storm Expected For Sun-Mon

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was only partially updated, not including Day 5. A full update of the 5-Day Forecast will take place either tomorrow or Wednesday.

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Today was a cloudy day across the area, and as expected yesterday, widespread snow showers took place, some of which were moderate. High temperatures were in the lower 30s inland, lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area, and mid 30s in Long Island/S CT.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly cloudy day across the area with a breezy west wind. A few flurries are possible, however any snow will not be as widespread as it was today. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland, lower to mid 30s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 30s for Long Island/S CT.

Tomorrow night will not yet be very cold, but with cloud cover expected to gradually decrease with lighter winds, colder low temperatures are expected, in the 20s for most of the area and upper 10s inland.


Wednesday - Thursday: Coldest Days Of Cold Spell

On Wednesday, as the worst of the arctic air mass surges into the Northeast, the area will only see slightly cooler high temperatures, in the upper 20s to mid 30s, but with clearer skies and a high pressure approahing, much colder overnight lows are expected. Low temperatures on Wednesday night are expected to be in the lower to mid 10s inland, mid 10s to lower 20s north/west of NYC and in S CT, lower 20s in Long Island, and lower to mid 20s in NYC. Wind chills well into the 10s are possible for Thursday morning.

Thursday will have similar high temperatures with mostly sunny skies expected, however overnight low temperatures will still be cold but not as cold as the previous night, as a low pressure approaching the Great Lakes will help push the cold air mass out of the region.


Longer Range: Friday Light Rain/Snow, Big Storm Potential Sunday-Tuesday

Between Friday and Saturday, a weak Alberta Clipper to the north of the area will help push out the cold air mass, but not without first bringing some light precipitation to the area. The precipitation is expeted to fall as rain near the coast and in NYC, but further inland, light snow is expected, though accumulations, if any, are uncertain at this time. More details on this clipper will be posted tomorrow or on Wednesday.

For Saturday, slightly warmer temperatures are possible as the cold air mass will be away from the area, however another storm will be organizing in the central US at that time. There is still a lot of uncertainty as the models have yet to reach a consistent solution, however at this time it is likely that the storm could be an intense one, with impacts ranging from heavy rainfall and strong winds to heavy snow north and west of the storm. While there is still time for trending left, most of the models show the storm inland, and at this time my first thoughts for this storm is an inland track with rain for the area, which if this scenario verifies, heavy rain and windy conditions could be possible. This is still subject to change, and it is possible that the models trend more west or east, though at this time a snowstorm is unlikely for NYC as a result of this storm. Stay tuned for more details on this storm over the next few days.

After this storm, however, it is likely to get much colder as an arctic air mass moves into the region. While it appears that the worst of the cold may stay to the west of the area, what the arctic air mass does mainly depends on the storm before it, so once the models reach a better agreement with the storm, they will also reach a better agreement with this arctic air mass. If what the latest models are showing, temperatures even colder than the ones we are now seeing may be possible, with widespread high temperatures in the 20s in the NYC area, however this is very uncertain and is subject to change. Stay tuned for more details.