Dec 1: Cold Pattern Settles In

With the start of meteorological winter being today, the pattern is currently in the process of becoming much more winter-like. Behind the storm that ended for the area this afternoon, temperatures are currently steadily dropping across the area, already being in the 30s and lower to mid 40s. The cold front is bringing in a much colder air mass into the region, with 850 mb temperature dropping into the -8c range as a trough moves into the region. Unlike the previous cold air masses that affected the area though, this trough will be here to stay through the first 10 days of December.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a partly sunny and much colder day, with a WNW wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, upper 30s to mid 40s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 40s for Long Island/S CT.

Overnight lows are expected to be slightly colder than those of tonight, especially in the eastern parts of the area, reaching the lower to mid 20s inland, mid to upper 20s for S CT and the N/W suburbs of NYC, upper 20s to lower 30s in Long Island, and in the lower to mid 30s in NYC.


Friday - Saturday: Cold, Dry

As the trough remains locked up over the area, temperatures are expected to be similar to those of tomorrow, but slightly warmer, with the warmest day over the next week supposed to be Saturday, with high temperatures only in the lower to mid 40s across most of the area.


Sunday: First Mid Atlantic Snow Event Stays South Of NYC

Two days ago, I talked about a potential clipper in my post, mentioning how given the pattern, it was likely to stay south of the area, with the best chance of snow in the central Mid Atlantic. Yesterday's models backed away from this, however the potential was not dead yet as the models were not consistent yet. Today's models returned to showing the clipper, however with the strong suppressing pattern, the clipper will stay south of NYC. There is uncertainty with where the clipper tracks and how strong it is, but it appears that the central Mid Atlantic has the best chance of seeing snowfall with light accumulations over an inch possible. No snow is expected for the area at this time, however I will continue to monitor this storm for any potential north trend. More details, as well as maps, will be posted on this storm over the next few days.

The storm is then expected to move offshore, but due to the blocking, will rapidly intensify and is expected to move northwest into Maine and Nova Scotia, where it could bring more snow. This will bring even colder air into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures in the lower to upper 30s and low temperatures in the mid 10s to upper 20s possible. Afterwards, the cold may start to weaken slightly, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on this time frame. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame and what it may bring to the area.