Dec 17: Sunday Snow Unlikely, Looking Ahead

Notes:

- The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the entire area, with a new 5-Day Graphic.

- The Snow Alert has been removed for the eastern parts of the area. More information on that is below.

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Today was a partly cloudy day across the area with slightly warmer temperatures than those of yesterday, which continues the warming trend from earlier this week when high temperatures were barely in the 20s.

Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day with more clouds by the afternoon with a west wind. High temperatures will be in the lower 30s inland and in the mid to potentially upper 30s across the rest of the area. A storm will affect the Southeast with rain and some snow, however it now appears that the storm will miss the area with nothing more than flurries across the eastern parts of the area.


December 19-20 Storm: Now Likely To Stay East Of NYC

It first appeared that a storm potential existed for this time frame on Sunday, when I mentioned it in my discussion. The following day, the GFS model jumped on board, showing a blizzard for the area. Over the last few days, however, the models trended east, and despite yesterday's afternoon runs, which briefly went west again to show some light snow for NYC, today's models continued trending east, and are now in agreement with any snow staying south/east of NYC.

The models are also starting to become much more consistent with the storm, meaning that while some minor shifts are expected, a trend big enough to put the NYC area in the potential area of several inches of snow is very unlikely to happen. This was a very possible solution all along, which was the reason why I kept the minimum potential snowfall at 0 inches in case this scenario would verify, which now appears to be the likely scenario.

The models now show a much weaker and further south storm by Sunday morning, which ends up southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC, slowly intensifying and moving NE. The models yesterday had the storm already steadily intensifying with a negative tilt moving NNE by this time, however today's consensus shows a weak storm further east still moving NE and only slowly intensifying. The storm becomes more intense by Monday, however by then it is already well northeast of the area. Based on this scenario, I removed snow chances for the interior and only kept a chance of flurries in the NYC area in case the storm trends slightly more west, though if there's no changes in the forecast that chance will likely be removed tomorrow.

Looking at the temperatures for the area, since we're not looking at much, if any precipitation for Sunday, temperatures will be slightly warmer than previously expected, in the lower to upper 30s across the area, and low temperatures on Sunday night could be cold again, in the mid 10s inland and upper 10s to mid 20s in the NYC area. Monday will be a partly cloudy and breezy day with slightly colder temperatures, in the upper 20s to mid 30s.


Tuesday - Wednesday: Clipper Brings Light Snow Potential

The storm that will miss the area to the east this weekend is expected to end up in the Atlantic Ocean away from Nova Scotia by Tuesday, however another clipper is expected to be near the Ohio Valley, moving east or ESE towards the Mid Atlantic and southern Northeast. There are differences with the timing and the location of the weekend storm, which will influence what this storm might do, however it appears that this storm may have the potential of bringing light snow to the area between Tuesday night and Wednesday.

It is possible that the storm stays south of the area with only light snow in the central Mid Atlantic, another possibility is that the storm is further north and stronger, and brings a period of steady snow to the area. At this time, I am leaning towards the southern solution, with some light snow in the central Mid Atlantic and perhaps some snow showers in the area. Regardless of the storm scenario, however, it appears that the storm may end up being absorbed into the larger storm to its east, which would prevent this from becoming a notable snow producer east of the Appalachians, however this potential is also uncertain and could change. More information on this clipper will be posted over the next few days.


Thursday - Sunday: Cold And Dry Start, Potential Christmas Storm?

By Thursday and Friday, once the previous storm exits the region, dry conditions with less cloud cover are expected once again, and temperatures are expected to remain chilly and generally steady in this time frame. By Saturday, however, the latest model runs have been showing a potential storm, which would be a clipper moving east through the central US and affecting the area. The GFS model was the most aggressive with this potential, with its 18z run showing over 6 inches of snow for NYC. As this is in the longer range, it is too early to look at the specific details of the storm, such as where it tracks and where snow falls, however there is the potential for a storm during this time frame that needs to be watched. Stay tuned for more information on this potential storm and how it may affect the area.