Dec 11: Freezing Rain Inland Tonight, Rain Tomorrow

**NYC Area Weather has issued a Freezing Rain / Sleet Alert for the interior parts of the area tonight.**

The 5-Day Forecast was also updated for the interior and the immediate NYC area.


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Today was a partly cloudy day, though cloud cover increased by the afternoon as a weak coastal storm spread moderate rain across North Carolina and Virginia. This weak low can be seen on the radar to the left, and is slowly moving north. Meanwhile, there is some rain showing up in the western part of the radar near Ohio, which is the main storm, currently bringing a blizzard to parts of the Midwest. These storms are expected to merge tonight, with the coastal producing heavy rain for the area tomorrow.

Tonight, as precipitation starts to fall after 12 AM, due to colder temperatures in place at first, precipitation will start in the form of freezing rain away from the immediate NYC area and the coast, being why I issued a Freezing Rain/Sleet Alert for Sussex/Orange counties, where freezing rain may last into tomorrow morning with 0.1 to 0.2 inch of ice accumulation possible in the higher elevations. A brief period of freezing rain is also possible further southeast, as far as Rockland and NW Bergen counties and potentially southern Connecticut away from the coast.

As an east wind develops and a warmer air mass pushes in, temperatures will start to quickly warm up in the coast by the late overnight/early morning hours, with a slow warm up inland, with NYC already reaching the 40s by tomorrow morning with moderate rain.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

As the storm continues to spread into the area, moderate to heavy rain will develop and affect the area through the early afternoon hours. By then, at least 3/4 to 1.25 inch of rain is expected across most of the area with the heaviest amounts in the immediate NYC area.

By the middle of the afternoon, the rain is expected to temporarily weaken, with high temperatures peaking in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and in the lower to mid 50s for the rest of the area, though the cold front from the storm will start to move east, which will bring increasing rain by the evening.

For tomorrow night, as the cold front moves through, another round of rain is expected, heavy at times east of NYC into southern Connecticut/Long Island, which will end for the western parts of the area around 1-3 AM. Windy conditions are also possible, with the strongest winds towards eastern Long Island/S CT, where a Wind Alert may be needed. After the rain ends, temperatures will drop, but will not be cold enough for snow, with the result being potentially scattered showers by Monday morning.

When the storm ends, at least 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected for the western and central parts of the area, with at least 1.5 to 3 inches of rain in Long Island/S CT. Locally heavier rainfall amounts are possible, especially in the central and eastern parts of the area. The NAM model is showing much heavier rainfall totals for the area, with 2 to 3 inches for NYC and 3 to 4 inches in Long Island/S CT, and while I think these rain totals may be too high, I will keep an eye on this potential, and rain totals may have to be raised tomorrow if this solution is still consistent.


Tuesday - Thursday: Cold, Breezy

On Tuesday, as the colder air mass moves over the area, much colder temperatures are expected to return. While there is uncertainty on exactly how cold it gets, it could be even colder than Thursday was, with high temperatures in the lower to upper 20s possible across the area. Breezy conditions are also expected, which will lead to wind chills in the single digits on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings in the interior parts of the area, potentially including S CT and the immediate NYC area as well.

Between Thursday and Friday, a weak low pressure may move west to east through the Mid Atlantic, bringing light to moderate rain/snow, however where this area of precipitation is located is still uncertain as the models are all over the place at this time. It does though appear that any snow potential in this time frame has a better chance of staying to the south of NYC than to the north. Afterwards, however, the models are in even bigger disagreement, each model showing something completely different. As a result, it is too early to know for sure what happens after Thursday. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame and what may happen in the area.