Dec 18: Looking At Week Ahead

Notes:

- The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the entire area, the forecast temperatures for each part of the area can be found in the 5-day forecast. Tonight's discussion mainly focuses on the scenarios for the storms and less on the temperatures.

- The poll for tomorrow's storm has ended yesterday, with the results below. A new poll has been opened for the potential Christmas storm, please vote your thoughts on that poll, which will close on Thursday.

5 votes - Storm well to the south, dry and cold
10 votes - Storm clips NYC with light snow
4 votes - Heavy snow and wind in NYC
2 votes - Too close to coast, rain/snow mix

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Today brought increasing clouds to the area as a storm to the south brought rain and some frozen precipitation to the Southeast. Despite this being the short range, I am now keeping an eye on the possibility that the storm tracks further west than currently expected, with perhaps some snow accumulations in Long Island tomorrow.


Tomorrow's Storm: Snow In Long Island?

Yesterday, it became apparent that the storm would fail to impact places near and west of NYC with anything more than a few flakes, if even that. The latest short term models, however, are catching on to the possibility that the storm may try to move NNE up the coast, bringing 1-2 inches of snow to Long Island and even more snow for Cape Cod, eastern Massachusetts and Maine, while models such as the GGEM and GFS do not show this scenario.

With this being in the near future, it is coming down to simple observations such as the radar and where the storm is tracking to determine whether the solution that the short range models are showing may verify or not. At this time, I went with a 70% chance of snow in Long Island with potential accumulations up to 1 inch, but this is based on the possibility of the storm tracking further west. This change, however, would have very little impact on the rest of the area, with NYC only seeing flurries with the western parts of the area staying dry.

Stay tuned for an update tomorrow morning about this possibility, and a Light Snow Alert may be needed for eastern Long Island if the storm does track further west than originally expected.


Tuesday-Wednesday Clipper: No Snow Expected

Yesterday, the potential of a weak clipper affecting the Mid Atlantic was discussed, with some uncertainties that have been mostly eliminated with today's models. The clipper is expected to significantly weaken east of the Appalachians, and bring some light snow to the central Mid Atlantic, including Washington DC, between Tuesday and Wednesday with the area staying dry. I did, however, mention the potential of flurries in the 5-Day Forecast.

Temperatures will slowly warm up through this time frame, with Wednesday's high temperatures the warmest over the next week or so, peaking in the mid 30s inland, mid to upper 30s in the immediate NYC area, and upper 30s for Long Island/S CT. A few places in the central and eastern parts of the area may reach the 40 degree mark.


Thursday - Sunday: Dry Start, Potential Christmas Storm

Thursday and early Friday are expected to be dry once again for the area as the effects of tomorrow's storms will end as the storm, still expected to be off the coast early in the week, will move away from the region. More sunshine is expected with temperatures generally remaining steady, slightly cooling down from Wednesday. Meanwhile, another storm is expected to start taking shape in the central US, moving towards the region.

The models today have backed away from the big snowstorm solution that the GFS had yesterday, with most of them showing a snowstorm well to the south of the area. This is still in the long range, however, and while it is possible that the storm does stay to the south of the area, it is also possible that the storm trends north to affect the area. The difference with this storm and the previous one, however, is that there are less players coming into play with the scenario, so it appears that the models may have an easier time handling this storm than tomorrow's storm, when we're less than a day from the storm and there is still some uncertainty.

At this time, it is likely that a storm will be moving west to east through the central US during this time frame, which would then bring at least some snow to the central and potentially southern Mid Atlantic, but what happens from there is a question, as it is possible that the storm moves ENE and out to sea, or it could intensify and move NE up the coast, bringing a big snowstorm for the coast or into the Interstate 95 corridor.

Details are uncertain at this time, however there is the potential of a storm to affect the region during this time frame with snow, and may potentially affect the area. Stay tuned for more information about this storm.