12/25/10 Morning: Major Snowstorm Expected

Note: Snow and Heavy Snow watches have been issued. Please visit the "Weather Alerts" page for the latest alerts and potential snowfall amounts in each part of the area.

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Last night, the update mentioned that some models have trended west with the storm, and it was possible that if the overnight model runs trended west, this storm would be able to produce a significant snowstorm for the area with as much as over a foot in Long Island. The overnight and morning model runs have done so, and a major snowstorm as big as some of last winter's blizzards is now reality for the area.

Accordingly, I issued a snow watch inland and a heavy snow watch further east, which are likely to be upgraded to warnings later tonight. I went with snowfall amounts slightly lower than the models are showing, however some upward adjustments in snowfall amounts may be possible, especially in the central and western parts of the area.

As the storm moves north from the Carolinas and up the coast, it will rapidly intensify, stalling off the coast of Long Island on Sunday night before moving northeast by Monday. Starting Sunday in the early afternoon, the storm will bring widespread heavy snow to the area and windy conditions, and it is possible that a blizzard watch/warning may be issued for the eastern and central parts of the area. By the time that the storm is over, at least 4 to 8 inches, or up to 10 inches in the snowier scenario, are possible inland, with 8 to 14 inches in the immediate NYC area and 10 to 18 inches in Long Island and southern Connecticut. Locally higher amounts up to as much as 20-22 inches may be possible.

There is still some uncertainty though as the models have not finished trending yet, and some slight changes are possible. Stay tuned for more updates on this storm tonight and tomorrow, as well as a final snow map.