Dec 14: Cold Continues, Sunday Storm Update

Notes:

- The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area through Sunday.
- A new poll was opened for the potential Sunday-Monday storm. Please vote your thoughts on the poll, which will close on Friday.

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Yesterday in the evening hours, a light snow squall developed across the NYC area, but quickly grew in size and intensity to become a large area of moderate to locally heavy snow covering almost all of the NYC area. As a result of this, I issued a Light Snow Alert with the potential of up to 1/2 inch of snow, however the snow continued to persist and intensify despite the expectations, and the result was widespread amounts near or over 1 inch for the central and eastern parts of the area, with reports from Long Island of over 2 inches of snow.

Today was a very cold and breezy day, with wind chills frequently in the single digits and high temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s inland, lower to mid 20s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 20s in Long Island/S CT, making it likely one of the coldest days of the winter. Temperatures are still going to be cold tomorrow but will slightly warm up, with temperatures returning to slightly below average levels by Thursday and Friday. By Sunday, however, uncertainty increases as an expected storm may either stay out to sea, or affect the area with snow.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be another cold and mostly cloudy day but with slightly warmer high temperatures. Wind chills in the single digits are expected across the area with a breezy west wind, and sub-zero wind chills are possible once again inland tomorrow morning. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s inland and in the mid to upper 20s for the rest of the area.

Temperatures tomorrow night will be cold once again, with 10s away from NYC, however they will not be as cold as tonight will be, with lows in the upper single digits possible in the interior tonight.


Thursday - Saturday: Warming Up, Dry, Then Storm Possible On Sunday

Thursday will bring slightly warmer conditions as a weak low pressure passes to the south of the area and warming 850 mb temperatures, with high temperatures as a result in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. Friday will bring even warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies, with temperatures potentially reaching the 40 degree mark in NYC. Saturday will bring similar conditions, however a potential storm on Sunday may change that.

For Sunday, the models have changed little from yesterday, with the GFS model still showing a blizzard for the area with over a foot of snow, and the ECMWF/GGEM models staying out to sea with nothing or only light snow for NYC.

The models are already about to enter the 100 hour range, when they usually start locking onto a specific storm track. Given the set up, this storm is very unlikely to track close enough to the coast or inland to bring rain to the area, but the model consensus at this time is for a suppressed storm, or the southern track shown in the map to the left. It is a good possibility that the storm stays OTS, and will become more likely if the models tomorrow remain consistent with that solution, however it is also possible that the storm could trend more west. If the storm trends west, a potentially significant snowstorm may be in store for the region including NYC, however if the model consensus stays east, the storm would only brush the southern Mid Atlantic with some snow and go out to sea.

At this time, I went with a chance of snow in my 5-Day Forecast, but that is a low confidence forecast and is subject to change. Over the next 2 days, there will likely get a better idea of the potential scenario, so stay tuned for more details on this storm and how it may affect the area.