Feb 9: Blizzard For Tomorrow

Verification For Monday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The interior was warmer than I expected, in the lower to mid 20s, with NYC in the mid to upper 20s.
Score: 2/4

Verification For Today: I expected Increasing Clouds, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. While interior areas were also in the lower 40s, the forecast for New York City verified.
Score: 3/4


Tonight: Cloudy. Snow starting after 10 PM to 12 AM, mixing with sleet and rain for the coast and Long Island. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snowfall accumulations between 1 and 3 inches possible.

Tomorrow: Heavy Snow and Windy. Some rain or sleet may mix in early for Long Island and the coast. Blizzard conditions possible at times. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area. Snowfall accumulations between 6 and 12 inches possible.

Tomorrow Night: Snow ending before 12 AM. Low temperatures will be in the lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snowfall accumulations between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the in the lower to mid 30 north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Storm Update For Tomorrow:

The model runs last night did appear to back away from the southern trend, and as I said when making my map last night, that would easily put us with 8 or more inches of snow. This now appears to be the case, with the forecast models showing us with over 10 inches of snow. However, this north trend means that the mix line also moved north. With temperatures being above freezing at first, precipitaiton should start as a mix for New York City, Long Island and coastal New Jersey. The precipitation will start out mainly light late this evening, and steadily intensify until the morning hours.

By tomorrow, when the storm begins to rapidly intensify off the coast, the storm will pull in colder air, and we will see the transition for snow by early tomorrow morning in most of the area, except far eastern Long Island and the central and southern NJ coast, which should change over to snow later in the day. Conditions will also become increasingly windy, with blizzard conditions possible at times closer to the coast. As the storm intensifies, so will the snow, which will become heavy across the area, producing snow rates of up to 1-2 inches per hour.

The snow will then begin to taper off from west to east tomorrow evening, ending mainly before midnight. Snow total accumulations could be well over a foot in some areas, making this the biggest snowstorm for the whole NYC Tri-State area since February 11-12, 2006, when a blizzard dumped a record 26 inches of snow in Central Park.

Below is my final snow map for the area. If you are in the light pink area, you could start out with a snow/sleet mix before changing over to heavy snow by tomorrow morning, with 9-15 inches of snow possible. In the dark pink area, a wintry mix is expected until the afternoon before the changeover to snow, with 4 to 9 inches of snow.

Forecast For Late Week:

After this storm, we are not looking at any storm through next weekend, with dry condition remaining. High temperatures will be near to slightly below average. This quiet period does not last much longer, with the potential next storm threat by early to mid next week.