Feb 18: Monday Night Storm Update

Verification For Wednesday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. While the northwestern areas had lows in the mid to upper 20s, the rest of the forecast verified.
Score: 3/4


Today: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Update on Early Next Week

Last night, I posted my first scenario map for this storm, showing my current thinking. Despite the models still all over the place, with the GFS and GGEM showing a suppressed storm and the EURO being too far north and west, the pattern can still help us figure out where the storm could end up.

The blocking pattern that has sent storms to our south this whole winter is showing signs of starting to weaken, not completely collapse but weaken enough to allow the storm to travel further north. Despite the storm tracking further north, the blocking is still strong enough to prevent the storm from going all the way inland, so if the storm follows my thinking and travels through the Ohio Valley, it would form a secondary low further east. It could end up anywhere from the Delmarva Peninsula to slightly north of New York City, and move northeast from there while intensifying.

The history of trends with this current pattern is that usually between the 3-5 day range, the storm does a big trend, either north or south, which is slightly moderated in the very short range, and also why some places such as Maine with the last storm had much less snow than expected. The models are still all over the place, though I do think that the models should correct themselves to start showing a further north solution. Even if the solution is further north, it can still end up busting, as Tuesday's storm showed us when the models were consistent with heavy snow into most of Maine until the last day before the storm.

While I am staying my thoughts from yesterday, expecting a wintry mix in the area with mainly rain for eastern Long Island, note that it can still change as there are still 4-5 days until the storm. By at least Saturday, if the model consensus is south, then I may adjust my forecast further south, otherwise I continue to expect a north solution.