Feb 12: Snowstorm On Monday Night

Verification For Thursday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The low temperatures stayed steady overnight, which was warmer than I expected. The actual low temperatures were in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Score: 2/4

Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast was correct.
Score: 4/4


Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow night: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s across the area.

Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Dry Weekend Ahead

Conditions are expected to remain dry this weekend, while a significant snowstorm continues to affect areas unusually south, such as Georgia and South Carolina, through early tomorrow morning. High temperatures will be below average tomorrow, in the lower to mid 30s. Sunday will be slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across the area. Both days will have partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Snowstorm Early Next Week:

The models remain consistent with showing a snowstorm next week, though it is not expected to be anywhere as intense as the past few storms. What we have consistency with is that a weak, moisture starved storm is expected to move out of Canada and head southeast towards the Mid Atlantic, dropping light to moderate snow towards Kentucky and Tennessee. The storm then turns east and northeast from about southern Virginia, with room for intensification.

The GFS shows the storm intensifying while passing just east of New Jersey, bringing moderate precipitation from Washington DC through Philadelphia and NYC towards Boston. Other models, such as the GGEM, take the storm out to sea, with no snow north of Philadelphia. The GGEM, however, has been trending north in its past few runs, and with more accurate short range models such as the NAM showing it closer to the GFS, I think that we are most likely going to see snow out of this. The question is how much snow, as we have yet to see if the storm follows what the GFS shows, which would bring at least 5 to 10 inches of snow to the area, or follows the southern solution, which brings the most snowfall towards Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula.

Below is my first scenario map, showing my current thinking of where the light and moderate snow zones could end up. Note that this is only preliminary, and may change over the next few days.