Feb 20: Stormy Weather Returns

Verification For Friday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Once again, cloudy skies prevented the temperatures from dropping, which stayed in the lower to mid 30s across the area.
Score: 2/4


Today: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Monday: Mostly Cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers after 3 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Mild And Dry Weekend

Enjoy the mild and dry conditions this weekend, because once the next week starts, things become very active. Cloud cover will remain generally partly cloudy this weekend, with high temperatures generally in the lower to mid 40s. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s inland, and in the lower to mid 30s for New York City and closer to the coast.

Storm 1: Monday-Tuesday, Rain and Wintry Mix

This week should be very active, and the active period already starts on Monday with the first storm approaching. This storm will have at first a primary low that moves through the Ohio Valley, then towards the southern Great Lakes, with snow into places such as Michigan. While still there, the blocking should be weaker this time than the past few storms, and it will still prevent the storm from completely moving through the Great Lakes without forming a secondary low.

The primary low, meanwhile, should pull in enough warm air to bring rain and wintry mix to western Pennsylvania, with light rain/snow starting to fall in the NYC area. There are some problems that will prevent us from having mainly snow, such as the lack of a source of fresh cold air, and there isn't a high pressure to lock in the cold air. As a result, once the secondary storm forms somewhere near the Delaware coast, it should start moving northeast and intensify, but for a while, the warm air continues to impact the area, with the changeover to rain or a wintry mix for the New York City area.

Once the storm passes near the area, it could end up pulling in enough cold air for at least a changeover back to snow in the northwestern parts of the area and a wintry mix for places north and west of New York City, though that should not accumulate too much, if at all, as the storm then starts to exit the area.

Below is my updated scenario map, along with a forecast for cities and some areas.

Washington DC: Rain.
Philadelphia: Rain, a brief snow/mix possible early.
New York City: Light snow/mix changing over to rain.
Northern New Jersey: Light snow, changing over to mix in the NW parts and rain for the north central and NE areas. Changeover to snow is possible in NW NJ at the end.
Boston: Snow to start, changing over to a mix. Rain is possible from Boston and further south.



Storm 2: Thursday-Friday, Snow To Our North

As I mentioned yesterday, another storm is possible on Thursday and Friday, however the track of the storm is still very uncertain. The models continue to be all over the place with the location of the storm, and will most likely continue to do so until they find a consistent solution for the storm on Tuesday.

What we do know at this time is that this storm should originate in the south, probably bringing some snow to those areas. The storm then starts moving towards the coast and offshore, however this is where the uncertainty is. Some models such as the GGEM take this storm offshore with no impact, while the GFS takes this storm north, then northwest into the Northeast where it stalls, with a lot of snow for interior locations, rain to heavy snow for coastal New England, and some rain/snow for the New York City area. While I do not expect the models to lock onto a solution anytime soon, the recent trend has been that each storm is slightly north of the other, so at this time, while it is impossible yet to determine exactly what this storm will do, I am currently thinking that the interior Northeast has the highest risk of a snowstorm. This can still change though.

Storm 3 To Follow?

This is even further into the long range, though the models have also been showing another storm to affect the area during the time period between March 1 and March 4. The pattern is still supportive of a possible Mid Atlantic and Northeast snowstorm, but not as much as it was in the past month. More details will follow on this potential storm if it is still there in the medium range.