Feb 15: Some Snow Tonight, Dry Week Ahead

Verification For Saturday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s across the area. The forecast temperatures were slightly colder than the actual lows, as the whole area was in the mid to upper 20s.
Score: 3/4

Verification For Sunday: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast was correct.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Sunday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s across the area. The temperatures were correct for the interior, though NYC and areas closer to the coast had lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Score: 3/4


Today: Increasing Clouds. A chance of light rain and snow after 2-4 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s across the area.

Tonight: Snow, mixing with rain south and east of New York City. Low temperatures will be in the mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Snow, mixing with rain south and east of New York City, ending before 10 AM. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s across the area.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Accumulating Snow Tonight, But How Much?

Out of the many possibilities for this storm tonight, it is clear that we will be seeing accumulating snowfall, but with the latest trends on the models, and the fact that there is still no agreement with the models, the snowfall amounts aren't certain yet.

We are looking at a Manitoba Mauler (a storm that moves out of Manitoba, very similar to an Alberta Clipper but the area of origin is different) that is currently in the Ohio Valley, and is expected to track just south of NYC and further northeast towards the coast of southern Maine. This is not going to be a strong storm as the previous few storms were, so we should not see much, if any snow amounts over 12 inches anywhere out of this storm, but snowfall amounts up to 8-10 inches at most are possible somewhere in the Northeast once the storm starts to intensify.

There are some issues that should limit snowfall amounts in the area. One of them is mixing, however that is more likely to take place south and east of New York City. The second issue is the lack of precipitation, as the storm intensifies too late for the area to get precipitation amounts higher than 1/2 inch. Another issue is dry slotting, as the forecast low position could bring dry slots to the area, ending precipitation early and limiting snow accumulations.

Below is my final forecast and snow map for this storm, with snow forecasts for some cities and areas also listed below.

Washington DC: 1 inch, mixing with rain
Philadelphia/Central NJ: 1 to 2 inches, mixing with rain
Long Island: 1 to 2 inches, mixing with rain
New York City: 1 to 3 inches, some mixing early
Northern New Jersey: 2 to 5 inches, some mixing possible early in parts of NE NJ
Hartford, CT: 4 to 7 inches
Boston, MA: 3 to 6 inches, some mixing possible.

Longer Range Update

After tonight's storm, we should bethrough next weekend. Temperatures will generally be near average, in the mid to upper 30s. By next weekend, the models are hinting at another storm, and despite the time range of this storm, it also appears to be another weak storm that doesn't have much moisture to work with. The latest models take this storm to our south, with light snow moving through Virginia. There is still uncertainty, so this can trend north or south, but at this time, this storm is unlikely to become a major snowstorm for us.