Feb 4: Weekend Storm Update, Preliminary Snow Map

Verification For Wednesday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the lower to mid 20s for the north and west suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast was too cold in the north and west areas, in the lower to mid 20s, but everything else verified.
Score: 3/4

Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The interior was slightly warmer, in the mid 30s, but everything else verified.
Score: 3/4


Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 10s for the north and west suburbs, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Increasing Clouds. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Snow, mainly after 10 PM. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the lower to mid 20s in the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Saturday: Snow. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s across the area.

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Weekend Storm Update: Potentially Historic Blizzard for Mid Atlantic, Lighter Snowfall Further North

I will split this forecast into two parts: The first one will be my thoughts for the New York City Tri-State area (the areas that I usually cover in my forecasts), and the second part will be my thoughts for the rest of the Mid Atlantic, including a preliminary potential snow map.

New York City Area Forecast:

When I made my verification for yesterday morning's storm, I noted how the NAM has trended south. This trend did not end today, but it continued even further south. In its latest run (18z), it showed a dusting of snow at most for the area. Other models have also trended south, including the EURO, the SREF, and also the GGEM, which I think the GGEM could be the outlier as it only has 1-2 inches of snow in Philadelphia, which is likely to see way more than that. However, the GFS model has trended much further north, now showing our area with 0.5 to 0.75 inches of precipitation, or 5 to 7.5 inches of snow.

With the other models well to the south, I am not convinced about it coming too far north, but we do have a very big storm with a lot of moisture that the models may be handling incorrectly, and with a weak SE ridge in place, and if the polar vortex is weaker than expected, then I can see how the storm could trend much further north.

For now, there is still uncertainty but we are starting to get an idea of what this storm will bring to the area, so my first preliminary thought would be about 2 to 4 inches in Sussex/Orange Counties, 3 to 6 inches for northern New Jersey, and 4 to 8 inches for NYC and Long Island. These totals are subject to change, and will probably be different tomorrow when I make my final forecast for the storm.

Mid Atlantic Forecast And Snow Map:

We are seeing what could be remembered as the Blizzard of 2010 in the Mid Atlantic. Blizzard warnings have already been issued in southern NJ, and with near/over 2 inches of liquid possible, we could be looking at as much as 2 feet of snow, if not slightly higher, from Washington DC to Southern New Jersey.

As such, below is my preliminary snow map. These amounts are subject to change, and are not final yet. My final map will be made tomorrow.