Jan 28: Surprise Morning Snow, Longer Range

Surprise Morning Snowfall:

Most of us woke up this morning to an unexpected moderate snowfall, accumulating 1 to 3 inches over the region. After starting in the morning, the snow picked up in intensity and became moderate between 8 and 9 AM. The snow then tapered off around 10 AM, and with warmer temperatures and the sun coming out, the snow quickly melted, with most locations losing their snow cover in just 2 hours!

This makes it the third and final snow event of the month, an unusually low number for January. This whole winter did not have a lot of winter storms up to this point, and most areas north and west of NYC are below to much below their average winter snowfall.

For the short term, snow squalls are moving through the area, which will produce moderate wind gusts at times along with briefly heavy snowfall and low visibility, with the heaviest activity being towards SE NY and Connecticut. No accumulations are generally expected, however in the heaviest snow squalls an additional light accumulation is possible.

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Verification for Wednesday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Verification for Today: I expected possible snow showers mixing with rain for NYC and closer to the coast, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulations up to a dusting were expected north and west of NYC. As I mentioned above, I busted with the snow as there was more than I expected, but the temperatures did verify.
Score: 2/4



Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Cold and windy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills in the single digits expected.

Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. Cold and windy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills in the single digits expected in the morning.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Short Term Forecast (Thursday Night to Saturday):

Snow squalls will continue to move through the area until this evening, with Connecticut seeing the heaviest snow squalls. Little or no accumulation is expected, however winds could gust past 30 mph at times. Tonight will be much colder after this clipper passes. Temperatures drop into the 10s across the region, with wind chills in the single digits possible. Tomorrow is also very cold, with high temperatures in the 20s across the area. Tomorrow night will be partly cloudy and also cold, with low temperatures in the mid-upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. As the storm passes to our south, Saturday will be dry yet cold. High temperatures will be similar to Friday's highs. Saturday night will not be as cold as Friday night, with temperatures more similar to tonight's temperatures.

Medium Range Forecast (Sunday to Wednesday):

Sunday will be slightly warmer than Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. This warm up will continue through next week, with highs already returning into the 30s for the area by early next week. A light precipitation event is possible for Wednesday, with light rain and/or snow showers expected at this time. High temperatures will still be in the 30s.

Storm for February 5-7?

Looking into the longer range, we have another storm potential coming, around February 5-7, or two weekends from today. There is still a lot of uncertainty as this is in the longer range, however the forecast models have been hinting of a storm originating in the South or in the northern Gulf of Mexico and affecting our area. While it's too early to go into details, this time period needs to be watched for potential storm impacts.