Jan 16: Latest Storm Forecast

Verification For Friday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Due to mainly cloudy skies, the whole area busted, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across the area.
Score: 1/4


Today: Partly Cloudy. Mild. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. (Forecast lows were updated at 8 PM)

Tomorrow: Cloudy. Showers starting after 12-3 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be less than 0.2 inch.

Tomorrow Night: Rain, heavy at times. Freezing rain and sleet may mix in after midnight for Sussex and Orange counties. Low temperatures will be nearly steady in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 2 inches.

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Latest Update on Tomorrow's Storm:

During the afternoon hours tomorrow, precipitation should start falling as the storm approaches the area. Most of the region should start out with rain, however areas in Sussex/Orange counties may briefly start out with some snow or sleet. During the evening to early overnight hours, the whole area will see rain becoming moderate to heavy at times, with rainfall amounts generally near 1 inch to locally 2 inches. After midnight, however, freezing rain, sleet and possibly snow should start mixing in for Sussex and Orange counties. At this time, snow accumulations should be very little, if any, while freezing rain amounts up to 0.2 inch are possible. The storm will end on Monday morning, with temperatures for Monday rising into the 40s.

Forecast for Next Week:

Tuesday remains dry, with high temperatures generally in the 40s. By Wednesday, however, the GFS model has been hinting at a light precipitation event for the area. At this time, the GFS is one of the only models showing this, while the other models keep this time period dry. While I do think that it will be dry at this time, I would not be surprised to see scattered rain/snow showers on Wednesday.

After Wednesday, temperatures are expected to briefly cool down a little, with high temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s, but then we have another storm that will affect the area for Friday. This storm, unlike tomorrow's storm, should not form in the Gulf of Mexico, meaning that it will not be as wet as tomorrow's storm. The latest forecast models have this storm forming near Oklahoma, and moving east to ENE from there. However, where it ends up is a question.

In the past day of runs, there has been a wide variety of tracks, ranging from as far north as the storm tracking over NYC, to as far south as Florida. Despite the track, there is still the issue of the lack of cold air for this storm. For now, I am thinking that this storm should bring rain to the area.

Third Storm for the 24-26th:

Another storm is then expected to affect NYC between January 24 and 26. There has been model consistency in taking this storm well to our north and west, which would at first briefly draw in unseasonable warmth (temperatures into the 40s/50s for 1 or 2 days), followed by rain and then colder temperatures.

However, after this storm exits the area, we are unlikely to return to the mild pattern. The current pattern outlook is starting to show a reversal of this mild pattern by the end of this month, with the positive NAO and AO (which are contributing to the mild conditions) becoming negative again. While it will take time for this to happen, by at least the first or second week of February, we should have returned into the cold pattern we were in until now. The question is, will we also get a snowy pattern with this cold?