Jan 18: Update On Upcoming Storms

Verification for Saturday: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast was correct.
Score: 4/4

Verification for Saturday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. I had to update my forecast lows during the evening to slightly lower them, as there was unexpected radiational cooling with mainly clear skies. Due to that, interior locations were colder than my forecast, in the lower to mid 20s, while areas near NYC verified.
Score: 2/4

Verification for Sunday: I expected showers starting after 12-3 PM. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts were over my forecast of 0.2 inch, though the rain did start between 12-3 PM. The forecast highs verified.
Score: 3/4

Verification for Sunday Night: I expected rain, mixing with freezing rain and sleet in Sussex and Orange counties. I expected low temperatures to be nearly steady in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The rain totals busted, as the rain did not redevelop and become heavy overnight. There was still some rain, but not heavy amounts. The low temperatures did remain steady and even rise overnight, and the forecast low temperatures were correct.
Score: 3/4



Today: Partly Cloudy skies. Mild. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers possible after noon. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers possible. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Forecast for this week:

As the forecast above shows, we will have a chance of scattered rain/snow showers for tomorrow and also Wednesday, however we are not looking at any accumulating snowfall for the interior locations. After this brief rain/snow shower event passes, the temperatures becomes colder, with highs on Wednesday and Thursday generally in the 30s.

However, by Friday, we have another storm coming up. At this time, the forecast models are taking this storm to our south, however I am thinking that the storm ends up trending north on the models to affect the area. The precipitation type, however, is still a question. We still have the problem with the lack of cold air, as we remain in this relatively mild pattern, so despite it being the middle of winter, just because we are shown to be in the northern edge of the storm does not mean that it will be plain snow. So while uncertainty remains for Friday's precipitation type, it is likely that there will be precipitation on Friday.

Brief warm-up and storm for Jan 24-26:

As I said in my previous update on Saturday, we are going to have a storm move well to our north and west by Monday, January 25, bringing rain and warmer temperatures to the area. As soon as the storm exits the area on Friday/Saturday, we will have a rather significant but brief warm up. High temperatures will be unusually mild, in the 50s for Sunday and Monday. By Monday, the storm will bring rain to the area along with a cold front, and this will end the current mild spell.

While the big cool down will not immediately happen, the pattern will begin to become much more favorable for a cold and potentially snowy pattern. The NAO and AO will become negative, which is supportive for cold in the East, however the PNA (West Coast pattern) is still in question whether it becomes negative, neutral or positive. However, the pattern will be much more favorable for snow than it is as of now, and we may have to watch for our next storm at the end of January to the start of February.