Jan 25: Next Weekend Storm Potential

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. A few showers ending early. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Short Term Forecast (Monday Night to Wednesday):

Some showers are possible tonight, however that will taper off this evening, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Tomorrow will have more sunshine with colder temperatures. For Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures will be in the 40s except for Sussex and Orange counties, which should stay in the upper 30s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s.

January 29-31 Storm and Medium Range Forecast (Thursday to Sunday):

Scattered rain/snow showers are possible on Thursday, with high temperatures still in the 40s. However, this will make the area much colder, with high temperatures for Friday only in the 20s to lower 30s. Then we have to monitor the next storm possibility.

The forecast models are now having much better consistency with the storm track unlike the past few days, so I have enough confidence at this time to go more into details about this storm. The new consistency shown by the models is to take this storm to our south, with places such as Virginia and Maryland seeing moderate-heavy snow and places further north staying dry. Some other models don't even affect the Mid Atlantic with this storm, such as the DGEX. However, this is the solution shown 5-7 days before the storm, and chances are that the models do not stay with the same solution.

So far this year, we have seen at least every coastal storm trend north on the models, so I do not see any reason why this storm should not trend further north. And with such a strong cold air mass, it is very unlikely that this storm trends too far north so that we get rain. But then we have the question of how far north the storm trends. At this time, I do think that the models are showing a solution too far south, and that they will come back north, but it might take a few days before we know how far north that will be. As of now, I am thinking that places between central Virginia and New York City are in the most favorable spot for a snowstorm, and places further north should keep an eye on the trends.

Throughout the medium range, temperatures will stay below average, with high temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s, and low temperatures in the 10s and 20s.