May 5, 2012: Storms Return On Tuesday

Forecast Highlights:


- Mostly cloudy skies continue tomorrow
- Occasional showers/thunder on Tuesday, Wednesday
- Cooler temperatures to stick around through next week
- Next warm up expected by next weekend


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Today was originally expected to include partly sunny skies with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s; despite this, however, cloud cover failed to break apart across most of the area, and temperatures generally remained in the 60s, as much as 10 degrees colder than expected. With more clouds than expected, tomorrow is also expected to end up mainly cloudy with chilly temperatures and highs in the 60s. The next low pressure will arrive around mid week, with additional showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Sunday and Monday Outlook:


Mostly cloudy skies are expected again on Sunday with temperatures generally ending up in the lower to mid 60s, staying below 60 degrees in parts of Long Island/southern CT. Isolated showers are possible especially early in the day. Mostly cloudy skies are expected during Monday as well with highs reaching the lower to upper 60s across the area, warmer northeast of NYC.


Tuesday - Next Weekend: Mild, Some Storms


Edited on morning of 5/6

The next low pressure will arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday, with cloudy skies returning again. Scattered showers and possible thunder are expected on Monday night, especially north of NYC, with cloudy skies on Tuesday and highs reaching the lower to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west, and in the 50s to low 60s further east. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy, are expected between the late morning and evening hours, with some of these storms possibly ending up strong with weak instability. Windy conditions are also likely, especially during the heavier storms, with a south wind. Occasional showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue into Tuesday night, with scattered showers and storms possible again on Wednesday with highs rising into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

There is an increasing agreement with the models for a coastal low pressure to develop on Wednesday night and Thursday, staying mostly to the east of the area although bringing a better risk of additional rain east of NYC during that time period. There are increasing model differences with the low pressure once it moves away from the area, although at this time I am leaning towards the slower ECM/CMC which cut off the low over the region, once again keeping more clouds and scattered showers in the forecast through the end of next week while keeping high temperatures in the 60s, still cooler than average. Although temperatures may warm up by next weekend into early next week, no significant warm up is in sight, and temperatures are likely to remain generally close to average throughout the next 10 days.