May 24, 2012: No End To Stormy Pattern In Sight

Forecast Highlights:


- Cloudy/Partly Cloudy and Stormy Pattern to Continue
- Warm and Humid Memorial Day Weekend Expected
- Risk of Severe Weather Next Week
- TROPICS: 2nd Named Storm of Season May Form


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Today's Observations:

Today ended up as the fourth consecutive mainly cloudy and stormy day across the area, with scattered thunderstorms resulting in locally heavy rain, especially near NYC. Early this afternoon, locally heavy storms affected NYC and parts of western Long Island and NE NJ, with additional scattered heavy storms affecting NYC and Long Island this evening. Temperatures were cooler than those of yesterday, peaking in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most places. Temperatures from Montauk, NJ; Andover, NJ; and Westhampton Beach, NY were not included in the graphic due to gaps in the observations.

The active pattern is expected to continue, with a risk of scattered storms lasting through this weekend and going straight through most of next week as well. In addition to the risk of thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday and/or Wednesday next week, temperatures will also warm up, with warm and humid conditions expected, especially on Saturday and around Tuesday with temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast.


Friday - Weekend Outlook:


Friday will continue the trend observed over the last few days, with mainly cloudy skies, possibly becoming partly/mostly cloudy in the afternoon north/west of NYC, along with isolated storms. While the whole area will not be affected by storms, any storm that does move through may be heavy. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further north/west, and the upper 60s to mid 70s in Long Island and southern CT.

The active pattern is expected to continue through Memorial Day Weekend; in addition to a risk of storms, heat and humidity will begin to increase as a strong ridge moves into the region. Influence from a back door cold front will be felt around Sunday and Monday, although temperatures will still remain in the 70s and 80s for highs. Saturday appears to be the warmest day, with highs warming up into the 80s away from the coast, perhaps passing 85 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. Partly cloudy skies are expected with potential thunderstorms in the evening and overnight hours, although storms are not expected to be widespread. There is also a risk of scattered storms on Sunday, especially north of NYC, with slightly cooler temperatures expected. Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday.

Looking forward into next week, a cold front will move through either on Tuesday night or Wednesday, resulting in a risk of strong or severe storms in parts of the region. Warmer temperatures are likely as well, perhaps surging well into the 80s again away from the coast. Cooler temperatures are expected for the second half of the week with less humidity, although any break from the stormy pattern is not expected to last for long.


Tropics: Tropical / Subtropical Storm Beryl Up Next?


The season of 2011-2012 has had some odd weather events; winter 2011-12 began unusually early with an October snowstorm, but ended up otherwise mild with almost no snow, and just as winter ended the pattern began to resemble a more winter-like one in April with a blocking pattern. The hurricane season also had an interesting start, with the first year on record that both the Atlantic (Alberto) and Pacific (Aletta) hurricane seasons started earlier than the official start dates. The Pacific season continued to develop interestingly with a major hurricane, Bud, currently active and headed towards Mexico; considering the time of the year, Bud is a notable storm, making it the last time since 2007 that two named storms formed in May in the East Pacific and the 4th time this has happened on record, with Bud only the 3rd major hurricane recorded in May.

The Atlantic season is also off to an active start. Tropical Storm Alberto formed last week, making it the earliest tropical cyclone to form since Ana in April of 2003. Invest 94L is currently developing near the southeastern US, and although it is not surrounded by a very favorable environment for development, it is possible that within the next few days, Invest 94L develops into a subtropical or tropical storm, making it the 2nd of the season. A strong ridge will build on top of 94L, forcing it west/WSW towards the Southeast US.