May 16, 2012: Sunshine Lasts Through Sunday

Forecast Highlights:


- Mostly Sunny, Mild Conditions Through Sunday
- Cutoff Drifts North; Rain Returns Early-Mid Week
- Temperatures To Stay In 70s Next Week
- Memorial Day Weekend Warmth?


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Today's Observations:


Scattered thunderstorms continued to affect the area last night, with most places ending up with at least 1/2 to 1 inch for the storm total. Today's thunderstorm activity stayed to the north of the area, with most of the severe storms affecting the eastern half of New York state. After a dense fog overnight, partly to mostly cloudy skies were observed later on in the day, with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 60s to mid 70s in Long Island/S CT. Yesterday's temperature outlook verified for NYC and further north/west and eastern LI, although temperatures ended up a few degrees cooler than expected in western/central LI and CT.

With the cold front moving through, a high pressure will provide the region with sunshine and mild temperatures through Sunday. By Monday, however, a cutoff low pressure is likely to drift into the area, resulting in more widespread clouds and some shower activity for early-mid next week. Afterwards, there is more uncertainty with the outlook, but depending on where the cutoff low ends up, the potential is there for warmth towards Memorial Day Weekend.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

With the high pressure moving in, mainly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures are expected for tomorrow (Thursday), starting a 4-day stretch of sunshine and mild temperatures. High temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 70s across most of the area; although the graphic to the left shows widespread low-mid 70s, not all places in the 70-75 degree area are expected to pass 70 degrees.


Friday - Sunday: Sunny, Warmer


The high pressure will remain over the northern Mid Atlantic with temperatures slowly warming up. A developing cutoff low pressure further south, will keep more of an east/NE wind in place, preventing temperatures from getting too warm. Overall, for the Friday-Sunday time period, sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with temperatures slowly warming up, with most of the area expected to reach the lower to mid 70s on Friday, mid to upper 70s on Saturday, and the upper 70s on Sunday, perhaps getting to 80 degrees inland. Coastal areas will likely be a few degrees cooler with slightly more cloud cover and ENE/NE winds.


Next Week: Clouds And Some Rain Return


There are some differences with the models for next week, as the GFS does not show any organized cutoff low, instead resulting in sunshine and highs in the 80s lasting through mid next week. The other models, however, show more of an organized cutoff low drifting north into the region. Based on recent trends, I am considering the sunnier/warmer GFS an outlier solution, instead expecting the cutoff low to drift north into the region, with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies developing by Sunday or Sunday night, with clouds and occasional showers lasting through at least Wednesday. At this time, however, it does not appear that any widespread heavy rain is expected. Tomorrow's update will discuss next week's outlook in more details.

Going forward into the late week and Memorial Day Weekend, there are more differences with the models as each one handles the cutoff low differently. Other than the CMC, however, the rest of the models show the potential for a larger warm spell towards Memorial Day Weekend, although it is too early to focus on any specific outcome at this time. Stay tuned for more information on the Memorial Day Weekend outlook.