Late May 25, 2012: Hot, Humid, Then Stormy

Forecast Highlights:


- Heat, humidity for Saturday-Tuesday
- Cold front brings strong storm potential mid next week
- Cooler, less humid end to next week
- TROPICS: Subtropical Storm Beryl develops (more info in bottom)

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Today's Observations:

Another mostly cloudy day was observed across the area today, although shower coverage was less widespread than the last few days. With less rain, warmer temperatures were observed, peaking in the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of Long Island and southern CT. Humid conditions were observed as well.

With a strong ridge building over the region, the warmth will continue to intensify, with heat and humidity expected from Saturday through Tuesday, when a cold front will approach, bringing a risk of strong thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures and drier conditions will return behind the front, although a risk of rain may return again by the end of next week or next weekend.


Saturday - Monday Outlook: Hot, Humid; Stormy For Some


Hot and humid conditions are expected for this year's Memorial Day Weekend. Saturday will bring SW winds with very warm temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 70s to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT away from the immediate coast. Temperatures may reach 90 degrees in parts of NE NJ. Humid conditions are expected as well, resulting in heat index potentially reaching and/or passing 90 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. Partly cloudy skies are expected, with a risk of scattered strong thunderstorms north and west of NYC during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Sunday will be partly to mostly cloudy with slightly cooler temperatures, reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s across most of the area. Scattered strong thunderstorms, locally heavy, are expected north and west of NYC, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Although there were originally signs of a back door cold front moving through, the cold front is now likely to be delayed until Monday night or Tuesday, if it even does come through at all, with SW winds and partly cloudy skies on Monday resulting in what may be the hottest day of this time period. Temperatures are currently expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west, possibly the lower 90s in the warmer case scenario, with cooler temperatures near the coast. Humid conditions are expected again, with a risk of isolated storms inland during the late afternoon/evening hours.


Tuesday - Beyond: Cold Front Comes Through


Regardless of whether a back door cold front does come through around Monday night or Tuesday or not, there is a risk of thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and night; depending on the timing of the approaching cold front from the west, there is a risk of strong thunderstorms. Temperatures will depend on the back door cold front, although temperatures are expected to reach the 80s again from NYC and further north/west. The cold front will clear the region on Wednesday, with drier conditions and temperatures in the 70s returning for the second half of the week.


Tropics: Subtropical Storm Beryl Develops




Invest 94L became more organized throughout the day, and as of NHC's 11 PM update, is listed as Subtropical Storm Beryl, with sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum pressure of 1001 mb. Having two named storms develop in the Atlantic before the official start of the hurricane season is very unusual; most seasons did not even have a single named storm develop in May. While the hurricane season is off to an active start, it does not mean that the season will be very active, however; more information on this will be discussed in my hurricane season outlook, which will be posted on June 1st.

Beryl is currently located southeast of North Carolina and is slowly moving north. Beryl is expected to move more towards the southwest over the next two days, slowly intensifying while gaining more tropical characteristics. Beryl is expected to make landfall around Georgia or northeast Florida on Sunday, weakening to a depression afterwards. This post will be updated with more information on Beryl on Saturday morning.