May 12, 2012: Locally Heavy Rain This Week

With a weak trough moving out, a warmer air mass moved into the region with WSW winds, resulting in temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 70s for most places for highs, with Central Park reaching 78 degrees and Newark reaching 81 degrees.

Due to the lack of an active pattern recently, there is not a lot of detail to go into regarding the forecast. The only highlight of tonight's discussion is the Monday-Wednesday time period, when locally heavy rain and flash flooding is possible. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly above average, with no warm or cold temperature extremes expected.


Sunday's Outlook:

Sunday will be the warmest day of the month so far. With 850mb temperatures near 10-12C, partly sunny skies, and SW winds, temperatures will rise into the upper 70s across most of the area, with mid 70s towards coastal areas. The immediate NYC area is expected to reach the lower 80s, with NE NJ getting close to 85 degrees. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the evening, but no widespread rain is expected.


Next Week Overview:


The highlight of this upcoming week is between Monday and Wednesday, when moisture moving up the East Coast from the Gulf of Mexico will result in areas of locally heavy rain. The heaviest rain is expected to stay to the west of the city, likely focusing over Pennsylvania while extending into the western parts of the area. The exact location of the heavy rain axis is still uncertain, however, resulting in a bust potential in terms of rain; amounts could end up locally as high as 2-3 inches of rain especially west of NYC, although it is also possible that the rain stalls further west with less than 1 inch. Most of the rain is expected to fall between Monday night and Wednesday, with high temperatures generally in the 60s to low 70s.

By the end of next week, less cloud cover is expected with temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 70s for most of the area. There is the possibility for another cutoff low pressure to end up south of the area, which may keep cloud cover in place through the weekend with temperatures remaining in the 70s for highs.