Early August 19: Rain Possible Sunday, Will It Happen?

Note: I was unable to make this post yesterday afternoon, but I was able to work on it now. Until early September, the posting schedule will work differently, with some days having the daily update posted in the afternoon, some in the early morning, and there could be a few days with no updates at all.

The 5-Day Forecast page will occasionally be updated, as well as the "Severe Weather/Tropics" page, but whether they are updated or not, the overall conditions and forecast temperatures for the next 5 days will still be mentioned in the discussion.

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Yesterday was a cloudy day across the area, and as expected, the rain stayed to the south of New York City. As I mentioned in my first forecast for this storm, it was unlikely to trend too much north, if at all, due to its relatively small size and the position of the cold front, but what was unexpected was the big south trend, which combined with a high pressure to our north, suppressed the storm and kept most of the area dry with an isolated shower or two. Even when I made my rain map yesterday, there were still a few models bringing moderate to heavy rain to New York City, however that scenario was unlikely given the set up.

Meanwhile, the models are now showing another heavy rain potential for Sunday and Monday. Looking at the summer pattern so far, however, it is questionable if there will be heavy rain in the area, with more details on this potential below.

Today's Outlook:

Today (Thursday) will be partly sunny with a NE wind this morning turning south by the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 80s for Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Looking at the region, the Northeast will be chilly, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, but the southern Mid Atlantic, will not be as hot with highs in the lower to mid, locally upper 80s due to the cloud cover and storms. A few isolated showers are possible for the Northeast, with the NYC area expected to be dry, but the best chance of rain will be in central and southern Virgina, where there is also the chance of a locally strong or severe thunderstorm.

Friday And Saturday: Warming Up, Then Cooling Down

A weak cold front will move through on Friday, however it will be a dry cold front, with only a slight chance of rain to the north of the New York City area. Behind this cold front, a cooler air mass is likely, but it will not immediately come in, leading to warm temperatures on Friday with a west to NW wind expected. High temperatures will reach the mid to potentially upper 80s inland, upper 80s for the immediate NYC area, and the mid to upper 80s for Long Island and S CT.

Saturday, however, will be cooler as an onshore SE wind is expected to return. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s for Long Island and S CT, and the lower to mid 80s for the interior and the immediate NYC area. Meanwhile, a disturbance well to our north and west will approach the Northeast, which should bring cloudy and potentially wet conditions for Sunday and Monday.

Sunday And Monday: Rain Potential, But Will It Happen?

For Sunday and Monday, a disturbance that will stay to our north will move through the region, bringing a heavy rain potential to the Northeast. With the clouds in place, and an ESE wind expected to continue, high temperatures will stay on the chilly side, in the lower to mid 80s across most of the area. The real question, however, is where the heavy rain will fall.

The last few heavy rain potentials did not verify for the area, the first one bringing only locally heavy rain for the immediate NYC area, and yesterday's storm staying well to our south. The disturbance is also staying to our north, with the models showing most of the heavy rain to our north and west. Looking at these factors, it is questionable if there will actually be heavy rain for the New York City area. While it is too early to know for sure, it is possible that the heavy rain will stay to our north and northwest, but it is also possible that the heavy rain could affect the area. Stay tuned for more details.