August 10: Heavy Rain Potential Next Week

Today ended up having more cloud cover than originally expected, with high temperatures lower than my forecast, in the upper 80s inland, and only peaking in the lower 90s for the immediate NYC area. Scattered showers were observed this morning across parts of the area, with most places seeing up to 0.1 inch of rain. While it will not be as hot for the next week, the cloud cover will generally be partly to mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and thunderstorms returning for late this week and the potential for heavy rain next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy for the area with a generally east to ENE wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most of the area except for Long Island and S CT, which will reach the lower to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s possible for western Long Island and SW CT.

Dry conditions are expected for most of the region, with heat expected again for Virginia with up to 100 degrees likely, with any chance of rain tomorrow likely to stay in Virginia and West Virginia.

Thursday - Saturday: Mainly Cloudy, Cooler And Some Storms Possible

Thursday and Friday are going to be mainly cloudy, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Due to the cloud cover, cooler air mass, scattered showers and an onshore wind, high temperatures will be much cooler than the last few days, only peaking in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. These showers, however, should not be very widespread, with the best chance of rain to the south of the area, towards Virginia.

Saturday will be drier with some more sunshine, and despite an east wind persisting, high temperatures will warm up into the mid 80s for the immediate NYC area.

Sunday - Wednesday: Heavy Rain Potential

Sunday will warm up even more with high temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s for the immediate NYC area with increasing humidity, however the dry conditions will not last for long as a cold front is expected to affect the area. A cold front will enter the region on Sunday, and will move through very slowly, and could potentially stall in Pennsylvania. Some storms are possible for the western parts of the area on Sunday, with rain and storms starting for the rest of the area between Sunday night and Monday.

Precipitable water values during this time period will generally be over 2 inches, and with the set up shown, a heavy rain event is possible during this time period. The latest GFS run also shows this possibility, with as much as 3-4 inches of rain for the area between Sunday and Wednesday. There is still uncertainty as this is in the longer range, with models showing different timing and rainfall amounts, however rain is expected for this time period, with heavy rain also possible should the solution where the cold front stalls verifies. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

Tropics Update:

Tropical Depression 5 has just formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and is moving northwest. This tropical depression should intensify into a tropical storm and make landfall in Louisiana. I will post a full discussion on TD5 tomorrow, however it is likely that TD5 intensifies into at least a moderate tropical storm before landfall, potentially becoming a strong tropical storm if its environment is favorable enough.