August 24, 2010: Heat Wave Possible Next Week

- The 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the area tonight.

--------------------------------------------------

Today was another cloudy and chilly day for the area, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, below the average high temperatures again. These cooler than normal conditions should last through Friday, though Thursday should be warmer with temperatures near average. Enjoy these chilly conditions while they last, however, as what may be our last heat wave of the summer will start by the end of the weekend.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be another cloudy and chilly day across the area, with a north wind expected. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s for most of the area, slightly cooler in places that see locally heavier showers.

As mentioned yesterday, a low pressure will stay to our east, and the models backed off from the widespread heavy rain solution for the area. Scattered showers are expected, with the best chance for this in the eastern parts of the area, with the heaviest rain in southern Maine, where locally heavy rain is possible.

Thursday - Saturday: Comfortable, Becoming Drier

Thursday will be warmer, with high temperatures likely to return into the lower to mid 80s for parts of the area, ahead of the colder air mass that will approach the area. An isolated shower or two is possible, but the best chance for that will stay to the north of New York City. As the skies clear and the colder air mass spreads in, Thursday night will be much colder, with lows in the 50s for most of the area, and a few upper 40s are possible. Check the 5-Day Forecast for the expected low temperatures in each part of the area.

Friday will be another chilly day, with high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area, but what will be noticeably different will be the return of sunshine. Mainly sunny skies are expected on Friday with dry conditions, which should persist into the longer range. Friday night's lows will be similar to those of Thursday night, if not slightly colder.

Saturday will be slightly warmer, with high temperatures back into the lower to mid 80s, which will only be the start of the next warm up.

Sunday - Tuesday: Last Heat Wave Of The Summer?

While according to the calendar, summer is almost over, the last few months have been unusually hot, and summer is not planning on leaving without one last round of warmth, with what could potentially be one of our last, if not our last heat waves of the summer.

A high pressure will build into the area, keeping the sunny and dry conditions around, while a warmer air mass spreads in from our west. 850 mb temperatures will approach 20c, leading to high temperatures rising into the lower 90s for parts of the area starting on Sunday. While the models are not showing temperatures reaching the mid 90s at this time, this potential will be watched in case the models trend warmer.

This warm up will not be short lived, as the high pressure is expected to stick around for a while. What may bring down the heat, though, is a weak cold front that could move through New England on Tuesday. This cold front should cool things down towards New England, and it may also slightly cool the area down, but it is unlikely to end the stretch of above average temperatures, which should last well into next week. Stay tuned for more details on this potential heat wave over the next few days.

Hurricane Danielle: Now A Tropical Storm, But Expected To Strengthen

After Danielle briefly became a category 2 hurricane last night, Danielle unexpectedly weakened, and with the help of dry air, is now back to a tropical storm. This is only temporary, however, as Danielle is showing signs of organization, and may become a hurricane as early as tonight or tomorrow morning. The environment ahead of it is still supportive of intensification, and a category 2 hurricane is possible again, with a major hurricane not out of the question.

The latest models have trended west with Danielle's track, now taking it just near Bermuda. While this westward trend is evident, trends also have limits, and this limit appears to be the high pressure over the East Coast that will also lead to a heat wave in the Mid Atlantic. This high pressure will slowly move towards West Virginia during the early week, but it will likely be strong enough to prevent Danielle from moving NW and affecting the Northeastern US. As a result, Danielle will then be forced to turn north, then northeast and out to sea.

The latest GFS run, though, does something completely different, significantly weakening the high pressure and allowing Danielle to make almost a direct hit near the area. This solution is very unlikely at this time though, considering that the long range GFS usually lacks consistency in storm tracks, and that it goes against the model and forecast consensus that has been showing a high pressure not too far to our SW for the last few days, but this solution will still be watched, as this is still in the longer range and nothing is certain yet.

Invest 96L: Elsewhere in the tropics, Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is likely to form into a tropical depression, however its envionment is not too supportive, with 96L surrounded by a lot of dry air. Any intensification of 96L over the next few days is likely to be slow.