July 22: Storms, Heat Return This Weekend

Blog Updates: The 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the entire area. In addition, a summary of yesterday's severe weather event will likely be posted either tomorrow or Saturday.

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After yesterday's intense storms in the northern parts of the area, today proved to be a very nice day, with more sunshine and high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Things are about to be turning more active, however, with the return of storms to the forecast, as well as heat that could rival that of the early July heat wave.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring warmer temperatures to the area, however there is uncertainty on how much the temperatures warm up, which depends on a storm to our north. A low pressure is expected to stay to our north as the warm front moves through, however how far north is still uncertain. The GFS is farther south, and brings rain to the northern parts of the area, with chilly temperatures. The NAM keeps the rain well to our north, and as a result, brings much warmer temperatures. The other models are further north than the GFS with this storm, so at this time, I have followed the northern scenario for my forecast.

For now, I am expecting high temperatures to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for northern NJ and NYC, with mid 90s possible southwest of NYC. Long Island and S CT, with an onshore wind, as well as being the farthest away from the warm front tomorrow afternoon, should only warm up to the lower to mid 80s. Mostly cloudy skies are expected, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening into the overnight hours for the northern parts of the area. This forecast is not certain yet, and the temperatures could end up as much as 5-10 degrees cooler for northern NJ/NYC should the rain end up further south than currently expected.

Saturday And Sunday: Very Hot, Humid, Stormy

As the warm front moves through on Friday night, temperatures should stay mild, along with increasing humidity. Low temperatures will cool down into the lower to mid 70s inland, mid to occasionally upper 70s for southern CT and Long Island, and the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area.

With the warm front north of the area, and any scattered storm likely to stay to our north, Saturday will be one of the hottest days with the year, with the highest heat index of the year so far. High temperatures will rise into the mid 90s for the interior, lower to mid 90s for Long Island and S CT with a few upper 90s possible for western Long Island, and upper 90s to lower 100s for the immediate NYC area. Dew points are expected to be in the 70s, which would lead to the heat index reaching the mid to upper 100s for the immediate NYC area. The interior areas would see a heat index in the upper 90s. Partly cloudy skies are expected, however an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the northern parts of the area.

Saturday night should be warm and humid, with low temperatures only dropping into the mid to upper 70s inland, and the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area. Combined with humidity, it will feel even warmer.

By Sunday, the cold front should approach the area, however there will still be enough time before it moves through for the immediate NYC area to warm up into the lower to potentially mid 90s, and the upper 80s to lower 90s for the interior areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as the cold front moves through, temporarily ending the heat and humidity.

Early Next Week Outlook

Next week should start out slightly cooler with less humidity, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for Monday with mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and the upper 60s to lower 70s for the immediate NYC area for this time period. Tuesday should slightly warm up, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area.