July 19 Afternoon Update

Yesterday, some models started showing the possibility of morning storms moving through the area today. This turned out to be reality, with a severe thunderstorm moving through northeastern NJ and southern Connecticut, producing heavy rainfall up to 1.5 inches and damaging wind gusts. This area of storms is still active, located near Cape Cod on the radar image posted to the left.

More storms are on the way for this afternoon, however. While the parameters for today's event are not very impressive, they are supportive enough for the threat of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for parts of the area, with at least an overall 1o% to 15% risk. There are still more storms forming, with others intensifying, which some of them should reach the area starting 4-5 PM. Any storm that becomes strong or severe will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds, with small hail a possibility. At this time, it appears that the highest risk of severe storms would stay in the northern parts of the area (SE NY, southern CT), along with parts of northern NJ and NYC, however this can still change.

For the short term, the storms should affect the northern and western parts of the area, with more storms expected through late tonight, also spreading into other parts of the area. Today's update will be posted later tonight, with an update on the next chances of thunderstorms, as well as the potential return of heat on Saturday.