July 2: Heat To Begin, Longer Range Update

Today was slightly warmer than yesterday, though comfortable conditions continued, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Tomorrow will already start to warm up, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with early next week being very hot. Looking into the longer range, there is the question of how much the temperatures cool down, and rain may make a return as early as late next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

As mentioned above, tomorrow will start to become warmer. Humid conditions are not expected, however temperatures will be warmer than today, in the mid 80s inland, in the mid to upper 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 80s for Long Island and S CT.

Mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow across the area, which should lead to a nice start for the 4th of July weekend. As with the past few days, no precipitation is expected both for the area and the region.

Latest Heat Wave Forecast:

The models continue to show Sunday warming up into the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. Afterwards, however, the models start to differ from each other, with the NAM showing what would be nothing out of the ordinary, bringing high temperatures only into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Considering that it has 850 mb temperatures colder than the rest of the models, I am currently considering its colder solution an outlier. The GFS also trended colder, but not as much, with high temperatures in the mid to occasionally upper 90s.

The 00z ECMWF, however, has been the most extreme model yet, bringing high temperatures into the mid 100s for parts of the area, which is most likely too warm. The 12z run did slightly cool down, however from what I have noticed, its 12z runs tend to be colder than its 00z runs, so I wouldn't be surprised if tonight's 00z ECM goes back to showing a very hot solution.

Overall, it is likely that the 850 mb temperatures end up in the range of 20c to 22c, leading to high temperatures between Monday and Wednesday in the upper 90s away from the coast, with a few lower 100s in the immediate NYC area. Humidity should not be too high, with dew points in the 60s, however this will still be enough to lead to the heat index reaching the lower to potentially mid 100s.

Thursday And Longer Range: What Happens Next?

By Thursday or Friday, a weakening cold front may approach the area. There is a lot of uncertainty with the models for this time period, however this cold front is not expected to be very strong, which may lead to scattered thunderstorms, but the temperatures will not cool down by much, only returning into the lower 90s with a few upper 80s. The 90s should persist into next weekend, when we may see temperatures cool down further. Stay tuned for more details for the longer range, and any thunderstorm possibilities.