Brief July 16 Afternoon Update

Brief update for the short term weather:

Today is already starting out hot, with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast and some upper 90s southwest of NYC, which combined with dew points in the 70s, is leading to the heat index reaching the lower 100s.

The front is moving through faster than Wednesday's forecast expected, which would keep the area dry tomorrow, however today the severe weather potential for the region extends from eastern NY to Vermont, New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, and parts of western Maine and central PA, where there is a 10% risk of severe weather. There are currently isolated strong to severe storms, however a widespread severe outbreak is not expected for these places today.

Forecast For NYC Area: Parts of the area are probably going to stay dry for today, however there is an area of storms in central Pennsylvania, moving towards the area. If these storms reach the area, they should likely bring thunderstorms, which should bring heavy rain, with a few storms reaching strong levels, producing isolated hail and moderate/strong wind gusts. It is possible that these storms weaken as they reach the area, so it is still uncertain whether they affect the area or not. More details may be posted later this afternoon.

This will be the start of a four day heat wave, however. With a warm air mass remaining in place, tomorrow will be just as hot as today, if not even hotter, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s with a few upper 90s away from the coast. It should be slightly less humid than today, though. Sunday and Monday will continue with these hot conditions, with highs in the lower to mid 90s, with a few upper 90s possible near or SW of NYC, with more humid conditions returning for Monday.

The next potential for showers and thunderstorms returns for Monday and Tuesday. More details on this storm potential, as well as the longer range, will be included in tonight's post.