***NOTE: The blog is on a break, so there will be no updates until early next week.***
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It now appears that other than the scattered showers tomorrow, there could also be locally strong to severe thunderstorms, especially in the western half of the area. An Orange Alert has been issued for this storm, which can be found in the Stormy Weather Outlook page and also below.
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A front is expected to approach the area but should stay north of the area, and is expected to move north afterwards as a warm front. Areas of moderate rain are possible north of this front, and to its south, thunderstorms could develop. With dew points in the 50s, CAPE between 500 and 1000 jkg-1, and Lift Index between -2 and -4, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, which a few could become strong to severe. Any strong or severe thunderstorm should weaken or dissipate by the late evening hours.
At this time, the main threat out of these storms is strong wind gusts and potentially small hail. While some thunderstorms could reach the New York City area, the majority of the storms should be from northwestern New Jersey and further north/west.
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