April 20 Early Update: Rain Next Week

Reminder: Other than this page, two other pages in the blog, the 5-Day Forecasts and the Stormy Weather Outlook pages are frequently updated, with detailed forecasts for the next 5 days, as well as alerts on potential stormy weather in the longer range in the Stormy Weather Outlook page, always issued ahead of time.

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After the chilly conditions this weekend, Monday was warmer in the area, with high temperatures reaching the lower 60s in parts of the area. The warmer temperatures are expected to continue, however they should be brief.

Outlook For Week Ahead

Tuesday should be warmer across the area, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wednesday should have the same temperatures, if not slightly warmer.

By Wednesday night, a storm is expected to pass to our south, bringing clouds to the area with scattered showers possible. As a colder air mass approaches from our northwest along with a cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across the area. This frontal passage was previously expected to be on Thursday night to Friday morning, however the timing of this has been pushed earlier.

Friday should be slightly colder than average, with high temperatures returning into the lower 60s. Partly Sunny skies are expected, as the light rain should have passed the area.

Stormy Conditions To Return By Sunday

*** Due to increasing confidence in a potentially heavy rain event, an Orange Alert has been issued for this storm, which stands for a 30 to 70 percent chance of significant rainfall. ***

The storm that I previously discussed on Saturday is still shown on the models, and is expected to produce heavy rains along its path. This large storm is expected to approach the area on Saturday, however some suppression will keep the rain to our south until at least Sunday, when light rain is expected to begin falling. As the low pressure approaches the area, with a warm front moving towards the area, the rain is likely to pick up in intensity, and may fall heavy at times between Sunday evening and Monday evening. There is still uncertainty on the exact timing of the storm though, so these time frames may be off.

Due to the size of this storm, this should be a long duration event, with rain likely from Sunday until Tuesday, possibly earlier or later depending on the timing of the storm. This storm is expected to produce large amounts of rain, which may potentially affect the area if the wetter case scenario verifies. At this time, there is the potential for over an inch of rain with this storm. Stay tuned for more updates on this potential storm.