April 21: Rain Tonight, Early Next Week

Today brought an unexpected round of heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the area, with some places seeing as much as 1/2 inch of rain! There is still rain as of now in central New Jersey, which is expected to continue through tonight, however places north of New York City should mainly stay dry with the possibility of a shower or two.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow should also be warm in the New York City area, but it should be colder further north and west. High temperatures in the northwestern parts of the area should be in the mid to upper 60s, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the NYC area, possibly reaching the mid 70s in a few isolated areas.

As the graphic to the left shows, a cold front is expected to pass through tomorrow, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, though the majority of the rain should stay to our north and east. An intense storm should develop offshore, however it should not bring rain to the area.

Friday And Saturday Forecast, Update On Next Storm

Friday should be slightly colder, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s in the area, though Saturday warms up again, with high temperatures back into the mid to upper 60s. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday.

The models continue to show a wet scenario in the area, with rainfall amounts generally between 1 and 2 inches shown. Due to the models still showing a wet scenario, I now have a Red Alert in effect, meaning a greater than 70 percent chance of significant rainfall, though it may be downgraded to an orange alert if the storm trends drier or more suppressed.

At this time, rain is expected to start on Sunday morning, and become moderate to heavy at times on Sunday afternoon and night. The rain then weakens by Monday morning, though light to moderate rain is expected to continue until Tuesday. This is mainly based on the latest model runs, which can still change, so there is still some slight uncertainty, however Sunday night does appear to be the best time frame for moderate to heavy rain.

There is also the question on how much the storm is suppressed. While it should rain in our area, the rain may not make it into the interior Northeast. The northern boundary of the rain may shift a little north or south over the next few days, though rainfall amounts over 1 inch are likely with this storm for our area.