April 17: Week Ahead, Next Storm Potential

New Updates: A summary of yesterday's storm, along with severe weather and snow reports, has been added in the Storm Summary page.

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The rain last night has moved out by now, with rainfall amounts locally reaching 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain. As my April outlook expected, this month should have below average precipitation, which so far is the case, with some areas only at 1/2 inch of rain for the month.

Today should also be chilly, with below average temperatures in the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s inland, and in the mid to upper 50s in the New York City area. Tomorrow should be only slightly warmer than today, with high temperatures still in the 50s. There is a chance of scattered showers throughout the weekend, with cloudy to mostly cloudy skies expected on both days.

Warmer Temperatures Next Week, Light Rain To End

Next week should be different than this weekend. While Monday should still be chilly, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, less clouds are expected than this weekend, with partly sunny skies. Tuesday should start to warm up, with high temperatures reaching the mid 60s in parts of the area, and Wednesday having highs in the mid to upper 60s. Thursday should be the warmest day next week, with high temperatures reaching the lower 70s and potentially the mid 70s in parts of the area.

The models continue to show a cold air mass in southern Canada on Friday, but instead of bringing the cold air into our area, the models keep this cold air mass mainly to our north while weakening it. As a result, slightly above average temperatures are expected to continue on Friday with a chance of showers.

Storm Potential Returns Next Weekend

By Thursday, the models start to organize a storm in the Rockies, that moves east into the Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. This storm is shown to be large on the models, as well as bringing potentially moderate to heavy rain amounts. The 06z GFS on hour 180 (Saturday afternoon) shows the large size of this storm, extending rain from the Atlantic Ocean to North Dakota. The green and blue represent rain on this map.





Link to 06z GFS run

While there is still uncertainty on this time period, and whether there is a storm or not, there is the potential for wet weather next weekend that needs to be watched.