Feb 6, 2013 Noon Update

Feb 6 Afternoon Update: Major Snowstorm On Track For Friday

Due to the major storm expected to affect the region on Friday, afternoon updates will be posted each day until the storm with any updates and/or changes in the forecast from the last update. The next full discussion will be posted tonight.

Please note that live storm updates for this storm will be slightly delayed and will start on Friday evening, not during the afternoon.

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While uncertainty continues with the forecast for the Friday storm, confidence continues to increase that the region as a whole will experience its most significant winter storm in 2 years, since January 26-27, 2011, with potentially historic impacts from this storm in New England, including easternmost parts of the area in eastern Connecticut. By now, most of the models have settled on a major storm affecting the region, except for the NAM which continues to fluctuate with the exact handling of the storm. The question remains the handling of the phasing, with the 0z ECM last night the most bullish with the northern shortwave digging further south and a 500mb low closing off earlier, south of NYC, resulting in a major snowstorm across most of the area with over 20 inches from NYC and further east. Meanwhile, the rest of the models as well as the 12z ECM closed off the 500mb low later, closer to NYC, with the worst of the storm focusing over New England while the area observes rain changing over to moderate snow in the back end of the storm.

Compared to the latest models, the 0z ECM may have taken the trend a little too far and may be exaggerated with the major snow totals near NYC. However, some of the models have been trending towards a stronger low pressure closer to the coast, and confidence increases that the end result may be much more than just a 3-6 inch snow event for most of the area. My preliminary snow forecast will be posted with tonight's discussion, although especially should the coastal low track closer to the coast, which is a potential increasing in probability that needs to be monitored closely, and a scenario I may side closer to for tonight's outlook, more widespread significant to major accumulations are possible across the area, especially over Connecticut and Long Island which may get into the worst conditions of the blizzard; most of the accumulating snow is expected to affect the area starting from the evening. In the axis of the heaviest snow with this storm, currently expected to be over southeastern New England but which could shift closer to the area, widespread totals over 18-24 inches are likely along with blizzard conditions.

Stay tuned for more information with this evening's forecast discussion, which will include a preliminary forecast for the area. A poll has been opened in the right side of the blog regarding snow accumulations in NYC; vote your thoughts in the poll, which will close on Friday morning.