Forecast Highlights:
Blog Update: Updates to the Storm Summaries page will be completed by Sunday, 2/17, with additional summaries to be added in March and April. The Hurricane Sandy, 11/7 Nor'easter, and 2/8 Blizzard in-depth summaries and overviews will be published on Saturday, 2/16.
Last Night Overview:
Verification for last night's storm is complicated, with some locations receiving much less snow than expected, while others exceeded the forecast. Snow rates were generally light and struggled to accumulate in many locations, with many reports of snow totals below 1 inch, but locations that received heavier snow rates locally picked up 2-3 inches of snow, with such reports mostly found in parts of Long Island in Suffolk county (2.1 inches in Upton, NY) and southeastern CT (2.8" in Waterford, CT). Central Park, meanwhile, only reported a trace of snow.
Today - Friday: Briefly Mild
Warmer temperatures will briefly return for today and Friday with a SW flow expected. Highs today are expected to peak in the low to mid 40s across the area along with mostly sunny skies and light SW winds mostly under 10 mph. The warmest temperatures will be on Friday; the latest forecast is slightly cooler than initially thought, with more information on the outlook for Friday night below; highs will reach the mid to upper 40s across the area, perhaps reaching and/or slightly exceeding 50 degrees in the immediate NYC area, along with increasing clouds.
Friday Night - Saturday: Storm Expected, Totals Uncertain
Over the last few days, it has been noted that a storm was possible around Saturday; most of the model guidance showed nothing but scattered snow showers, although the potential remained for a somewhat stronger storm to affect the region with the model guidance still initially struggling with handling the setup correctly. While some changes have taken place compared to the original thinking, the model guidance as of this morning is now trending back towards a storm affecting the region but with some differences than originally noted.
The trend is mostly led by the GFS and UKMET, which with its latest run shows widespread 3-6+ inches of snow along the I-95 corridor, with the NAM showing slightly lower totals while varying with the axis of snow. The NAM was originally too far northwest, showing a widespread snowstorm in the interior Northeast, but has since then backed further southeast and is closer to the GFS with an axis of snow closer to the I-95 corridor. There remains uncertainty regarding the exact development of this storm, and why at this time there is not enough confidence to issue a higher confidence snow outlook, although should trends continue, an update will be posted this evening with more information on the storm and a preliminary snow outlook.
The latest expectation is for an organized area of light to moderate precipitation to develop along the cold front on Friday night in the Mid Atlantic, tracking northeast up the coast as a low pressure develops off the coast and intensifies on Saturday while moving northeast, affecting the area on late Friday night into Saturday evening. The storm is expected to develop too late for the most significant impacts to affect the NYC area, more likely focused towards Atlantic Canada and New England, although based on latest indications, the potential is there for moderate snow accumulations across the area. As previously mentioned, however, there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact development of this storm, with a range from light snow accumulations across the area mostly below 2-3 inches, to a stronger storm with more significant snow totals, especially towards Connecticut. An evening update will be posted with more information on this storm.
Longer Range: Cold, Then Warmer, Stormier
After the Saturday storm, much colder temperatures will make a brief return. Lows on Saturday night are expected to drop into the 10s for most locations north and west of NYC, with low to mid 20s in NYC and Long Island, followed by colder highs on Sunday, only in the mid to upper 20s inland and the upper 20s for the rest of the area with a breezy west wind. The coldest temperatures are expected on Sunday night, with lows in the 10s for most of the area; interior areas may approach 10 degrees, with NYC near the upper 10s to low 20s.
Monday will be slightly warmer with highs likely to be in the upper 20s to low 30s for most, followed by another storm on Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with this storm, although at this time at least some rain is expected to fall with this storm with temperatures briefly warming up. Colder temperatures are expected for the mid to late week, with another storm potential towards Friday which the model guidance has strongly been hinting at. More information will be posted on the two storm possibilities as details become clearer.
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