Feb 5, 2013 Noon Update

Significant Friday Storm Becoming Likely

Over the last few days, the ECM model has consistently shown a significant coastal storm affecting the region, while the rest of the models showed a significantly weaker system with barely light rain/snow showers. While the ECM has had cases of incorrectly showing a significant storm in the medium range before, in this case it did not back away from the idea, and as of this morning, the majority of the model guidance is starting to trend in this direction.

A more detailed forecast will be posted with tonight's update; based on latest expectations, the set up generally favors New England for a potentially major snowstorm, with at least moderate impacts for the NYC area but with uncertainty regarding the development of the coastal low pressure. At this time, a primary low is expected to hold into New York state with the coastal low developing a little too late for the area to receive a major snowstorm, instead resulting in a moderate rain event with some back end snow, although there is still some room for error with the latest model guidance, with the possibility that this trends towards more snow for the area.

Stay tuned for more information on these changes in the forecast with a detailed evening forecast discussion.