Feb 2, 2013: Light Snow Tonight, Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

A weak storm is currently affecting the region with widespread light snow showers, with minor accumulations across the area generally under 2 inches through tonight and tomorrow. The cold pattern will continue through most of next week, with another minor snow event expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a warm up in the pattern by the late week into early next week with some rain and/or snow expected.

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Tonight - Thursday: Cold, Some Snow

As the latest radar to the left shows, widespread light snow showers currently cover the region, with a weak, broad and disorganized low pressure moving through the area. Some models have been showing an inverted trough setting over the area, but with differing totals, ranging from 2-3" in eastern parts of the area on some models, to the latest NAM which is much weaker with this feature and keeps precipitation amounts below 0.10 inch. While it is difficult to specifically narrow down the exact location of the inverted trough and how much, if any impact it will have on snow totals, for the main part this is not expected to result in much higher totals, with most of the area generally expected to see 1 to 1.5 inch of snow, with higher totals up to or slightly above 2 inches mostly east and south of NYC. The snow will generally be light, with occasional light snow lasting through tonight and most of Sunday before ending in the evening hours. There is still the potential for higher totals above 2 inches near or east/south of NYC, however, depending on exactly what happens with the inverted trough. A morning update will be posted with any changes to the forecast.

Once moving out of the region, a low pressure will develop offshore and rapidly intensify while moving into southeastern Canada, with a trough persisting over the region through Thursday while slowly retreating to the north. Windy conditions are expected again for Monday, but not nearly as strong as the winds on Thursday and Friday, generally out of the NW at 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-40 mph. Through the early-mid week, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s for the rest of the area. Additional weak, moisture starved low pressures will affect the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with more light snow expected; while there is still some uncertainty on exact accumulations, there is not a lot of moisture associated with this event, and totals are generally likely to remain under 2 inches.


Longer Range: Warming Up

By late next week, changes in the pattern are expected with the arctic air mass lifting back north into Canada and a trough focusing over the western US, resulting in weak ridging returning to the East. The next shortwave will move through the region on Friday producing additional light precipitation; given the expected pattern, this will be further north than the other snow events this week, but there is still some uncertainty with exactly how far north this ends up; since late January, aside from the strong cold front, most systems this far out have been modeled too strong and too far north. At this time, light snow and rain are expected on Friday with the potential for minimal accumulations inland, although this forecast is still subject to minor revisions.

Another storm is likely to affect the region towards early next week, with the latest model guidance suggesting this storm is stronger with more widespread impacts than the minor snow events affecting the region this week. While the forecast track will still change around given this is still a little over a week out, the pattern overall favors a further inland storm track during this time frame, with warmer than average temperatures also expected during this time frame. More information will be posted on this time frame over the next few days.