Forecast Highlights:
Following the strong cold front 2 days ago, another cold day was observed with continued windy conditions behind a weak low pressure that moved off the Mid Atlantic coast earlier today, resulting in localized totals as high as 4-8 inches in southern NJ and Delaware. A few weak storms are expected to affect the region over the next few days with light snow accumulations for the area, while the cold pattern continues through this week.Forecast Overview: Cold, Several Light Snowfalls
A high pressure will briefly move through the region on Saturday, with lighter winds expected, generally out of the SW at 5-15 mph, along with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s for the rest of the area. A weak system is expected to affect the region on Sunday with light snow; this is not expected to be a significant snow event as the low pressure remains weak initially without much moisture, with a strong coastal low pressure developing and quickly intensifying well to the east of the area. There is still the question of exactly how much snow falls, with some model runs earlier today indicating an inverted trough setup near the area resulting in as much as 2-3 inches, while other runs failed to show as much snow, with most of the area near or under 1 inch. At this time, occasional light snow is expected on Saturday night into Sunday, with amounts generally between 1/2 and 2 inches across the area; the higher amounts are expected further east towards Long Island.
As previously mentioned, the Sunday storm will end up quickly intensifying into a strong low pressure over Atlantic Canada, with the trough persisting over the region through the rest of the week as temperatures remain below average, generally in the mid 20s to low 30s for highs. Increased clouds are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday as another weak system moves through the region, generally producing widespread light snow but again is too weak, dry and progressive to result in more significant accumulations. By the late week into next weekend, the trough will begin to lift out of the region as the pattern warms up towards the medium range, with a minor rain/snow event possible on Friday, followed by another storm potential towards February 9-12; at this time, the overall pattern supports rain over snow from this storm, although this is still subject to change given the time range.
Will The nao be negative @ all in the last few weeks of winter is what I wonder?
ReplyDeleteIt could end up slightly negative, although at this time a stronger negative NAO pattern appears unlikely, overall ending up close to neutral with an absence of sustained blocking over or west of Greenland; there are some signs though of an east to possibly central based weak -NAO towards the medium-long range. The lack of a strong -NAO signal in this case likely won't result in a sustained warm pattern, however, especially should ridging continue near western North America after the medium range.
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