Feb 16, 2013 Noon Update

Due to a busy schedule, I was unable to post an update last night. Another update will be posted tonight regarding the storm, with fully daily discussions to be resumed on Sunday.

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Tonight's Storm: Light Snow East of NYC

Last night, a narrow band of heavy snow affected the western half of the area, especially towards western NJ and interior SE NY, where accumulations up to 2 inches have been reported with locally higher totals over 2 inches. As the latest radar shows, a narrow yet long band of light to moderate precipitation stretches along the coastal areas, extending further south into the Southeastern states, and is very slowly shifting to the east with a slow moving cold front just off the coast. This frontal boundary will continue to slowly shift to the east as a stronger coastal low pressure develops off the southeastern US coast, quickly intensifying as it tracks northeast towards Atlantic Canada.

This storm, after several days of uncertainty with a variety of solutions painted on the model guidance, will end up staying east of NYC, with mainly cloudy skies and scattered flurries expected from NYC and further west. To the east of NYC, however, is where more snow is expected to fall. The short range model guidance is split regarding how far west snow from the coastal low spreads; most of the models are further east, scraping the coast with light snow as the heaviest snow develops further offshore, although the GFS remains the westernmost model with more significant accumulations in the eastern half of Long Island and Connecticut and a major snowstorm for southeastern New England. The GFS solution is currently not supported by the main model guidance, but only minor changes in the setup would bring snow from the coastal low slightly further west with more impact in Long Island and Connecticut.

Latest Forecast: The forecast for tonight is for light snow to develop in Long Island and southern CT late this evening, with occasional light to locally moderate snow in the overnight hours, ending early on Sunday morning. Accumulations are expected to end up between 1 and 4 inches, with the highest accumulations further east towards eastern LI and SE CT. The development of this storm will continue to be monitored, however, for the possibility of minor changes in the setup which would slightly change the forecast snow totals.


Forecast Update: Partly sunny skies are expected for Sunday but with strong winds as the coastal low intensifies well east of the area, with NW winds at 25-35 mph and gusts up to or over 40 mph. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 20s inland and upper 20s for the rest of the area. Cold overnight lows are expected with continued windy conditions, dropping into the low to mid 10s inland and mid to upper 10s for the rest of the area. Highs will return into the 40s on Tuesday with a light rain event, followed by the return of colder temperatures with highs in the low to mid 30s inland and mid to upper 30s elsewhere along with a storm on Friday, which currently appears likely to produce snow but with the forecast still subject to change. More information on the extended forecast will be posted on Sunday.